In early April, the ice-class carrier Vladimir Rusanov left Russia’s Arctic LNG terminal at Sabetta carrying a cargo of liquefied natural gas. After a short voyage west through the Barents Sea, it anchored off Murmansk, where its cargo was transferred to the conventional tanker Geneva. Instead of heading for Europe, Geneva sailed around the Cape of Good Hope at the southern tip of Africa, reaching Yangkou Port in China more than five weeks later.
For now, half of Russian LNG still travels the much shorter route to Europe. But Geneva’s five-week expedition foreshadows Russia’s post-2027 reality, when the European Union’s ban on Russian LNG imports will force Moscow to redirect every cargo previously sold to Europe to Asia.
Russian authorities have brushed off the EU ban as little more than a commercial inconvenience, insisting that LNG previously sold to Europe will simply find new buyers. But the logistical challenge is far greater than officials acknowledge. Longer voyages aren’t only more costly. They also depend on conventional LNG carriers to take over from the specialized Arctic fleet. For Russia, keeping exports at current levels will therefore require dozens of more vessels, just as Western sanctions are choking off the supply.
The cost of replacing Europe
As of late 2025, nearly half of Russia’s LNG was shipped to the EU, with most originating from the Yamal LNG project operated by Novatek, Russia’s largest independent gas producer.
Those exports depend on a fleet of highly specialized Arc7 and Arc4 ice-class tankers capable of navigating Arctic waters. Deliveries from Sabetta to European terminals typically take 7 to 10 days.
‘’There is no alternative market to Europe. It is the shortest route to earn money,‘’ said Sebastian Rötters, energy and sanctions campaigner at Germany-based environmental and human rights organization Urgewald.
Exports to Asia are a different story. Between June and late November, when Arctic ice retreats, Arc7 carriers can sail directly to Asia-Pacific via the North Sea Route (NSR), reaching Chinese ports in about three weeks.
Moscow wants to make that route navigable year-round. A growing fleet of Arc7 LNG tankers and nuclear icebreakers now allows for semi-regular winter deliveries along the eastern NSR, but those sailings remain limited, slower and more costly than summer operations. As a result, shipments to Asia rely heavily on the standard Western route via the Suez Canal — a journey of 35 to 40 days. Because ice-class tankers are scarce and expensive to run, Novatek transfers cargo to conventional LNG tankers in Murmansk before continuing to Asia.
“This means that Russia needs much more ship-to-ship capacity and conventional LNG tankers to cover the same export volumes after the EU market closes,” Rötters said.
Yamal LNG supply chain to Asia. (Adobe/EvaHilinski)
The logistics became even more challenging after the Russian LNG tanker Arctic Metagaz was sunk in a drone strike in the Mediterranean in March. Novatek has since rerouted shipments around the Cape of Good Hope, stretching voyages to more than 45 days while upping fuel costs by around 30%.
That single alleged Ukrainian attack has already proven costly for Russian LNG exports, said Malte Humpert, investigative journalist and founder of the Arctic Institute. “And these effects will become even more visible in 2027 when all Russian LNG will have to take the South Africa detour en route to Asia.’’
Indeed, after the European market closes, Yamal LNG ’s current fleet — 14 Arc7, six Arc4, and five non-ice-class tankers — would be capable of only 120 to 130 voyages to Asia, compared to last year’s 270, according to the Center for High North Logistics.
That means that Novatek would need at least another 30 conventional tankers to maintain winter exports at 2025-26 levels, said Ashley Sherman, senior LNG analyst at energy market intelligence company Vortexa.
As U.S. and EU sanctions have restricted access to newly built LNG carriers, Novatek has turned to aging vessels on secondary markets, mostly in the Middle East, using shell companies and middlemen to bypass restrictions.
The company recently bought four conventional LNG tankers for the Arctic LNG 2 project to support summer exports to Asia. But Moscow’s efforts to expand a specialized ice-class fleet has proved more difficult, as six Arc7 tankers built in South Korea remain stranded due to U.S. sanctions.
Keeping LNG tankers out of Russian hands
The EU’s LNG import ban, set to enter into force in January 2027, will also prohibit European shipowners from transporting Russian gas, regardless of destination. That could deprive Novatek access to another 11 ice-class tankers.
‘’Each Arc7 tanker that Russia cannot get access to is about 1 million tons of LNG less per year that they can sell,’’ said Rötters.
Greek shipowner Dynagas Partners manages five Arc7 and six Arc4 ice-class LNG carriers for Novatek's Yamal LNG under several long-term contracts extending past 2030. Based on Kpler data, analyzed by Urgewald, Dynagas has transported more than 11 million tons of Russian LNG since 2025.
If the sanctions are implemented as planned, Dynagas would lose its largest customer while being left with a fleet of highly specialized vessels with no alternative uses outside Russia’s LNG industry.
The EU has also agreed to cut off ships transporting Russian gas from maritime-related services, including insurance and maintenance, from January 2027.
Brussels nevertheless fears Russia will attempt to buy those vessels outright, offering European companies a lucrative exit.
To close that loophole, the Commission has proposed banning the sale of LNG tankers to Russian entities as part of its 21st sanctions package. Similar to restrictions introduced for oil tankers under the previous bundle, the ban would require companies to include a ‘no working with Russia' clause in sales contracts.
But for the Arc7 tankers, built for breaking through meters-thick ice, the market is exceptionally limited.
That reality has recently become the linchpin of sanctions negotiations, with Greece blocking the new package and demanding an exemption that would allow Dynagas to ship Russian LNG to countries outside the EU. The Greek ambassador to the EU and Dynagas didn’t respond to The Parliament’s requests for comment.
Whether the proposed restriction will ultimately keep the vessels out of Russian hands or benefit remains unclear.
’’Shipping is inherently complex and full of loopholes and mailbox’ companies so what will actually happen in January remains to be seen,’’ said Humpert. ‘’Will Dynagas transfer the vessels to another firm or subsidiary outside the EU? Possibly.’’
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