The US-based Rand Corporation, in a series of wargames in 2014 and 2015, considered the possible repercussions of Russian tanks rolling into Riga and Tallinn, the capitals respectively of Latvia and Estonia.
The newly-published conclusions state that Russian tanks could reach the outskirts of both cities in as little as 36 hours, or 60 at the most.
The results come after a Nato official this week said Russia is increasingly conducting unannounced military exercises, straining its relationship with the western alliance.
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Russia had staged large drills with no advance notification "with increasing frequency," Nato Deputy Secretary-General Alexander Vershbow said on Monday.
He said there had been about a dozen in the past two years, while alliance members have not staged snap drills since the end of the Cold War.
Nato members Poland and Romania are uneasy about Russia's military presence near their borders.
A spokesperson at the Latvian defence ministry told this website, “Conclusions made in Rand Corporation’s war games regarding Russia’s ability to conquer the Baltic states and the Nato’s ability to defend them did not come out of nowhere."
The official said there had been similar studies carried out by other international research institutions and think tanks previously, adding, "At the same time such conclusions could raise a certain level of concern in the minds of Latvian population.”
The spokesperson added, “Therefore, considering the geographical location of the Nato’s eastern flank countries and the unpredictability of Russia’s behavior, Nato has carried out and will continue carrying out considerable measures to deter Russia from aggressive actions against the Baltic States.
“At the Nato summit in Warsaw, alliance leaders have approved the deployment of the battalion size battle groups to Baltic states and Poland on a rotating basis as part of measures meant to deter Russia and to strengthen the defence of the alliance.”
He said, “Latvia’s security is based on three main factors and together they form the deterrence policy. Firstly - strengthening the country’s self-defence capabilities and the development of the national armed forces.
“Secondly - the presence of allies and providing the host nation support.
“Thirdly - the development of early-warning and information exchange system. The main priority is the development and strengthening the combat capabilities of the national armed forces.”
The official went on, “The priority also is the presence of Nato troops - significant, sustained and visible. Our goal is to deter the potential aggressor and prevent even from the thought to attack any Nato member state.”
More Baltic reaction to the Rand claims of a potentially "catastrophic" invasion of Latvia and Estonia come from Artur Jugaste, deputy director of Stratcom at the Estonian ministry of defence, who said, “It’s great that such a renowned institution as Rand Corporation did a thorough analysis of the security situation in our region.
“We agree with the main conclusion of their analysis, namely that the allied presence in the Baltics needs to be increased."
Jugaste cautioned, "However, any such war games always simplify the real situation and the results are not always applicable to reality. One has to keep this in mind regarding claims such as that the Baltics can be taken within 60 hours.”
He added, “The goal of our national defence is to ensure that the potential aggressor is deterred. We do this through strong national defence, that we develop with a defence budget of over two per cent of GDP, and through our allies.
“What we ask for from our allies is clear commitment to collective defence to avoid any miscalculation that Nato won’t protect its allies. This is exactly what Nato did at the Warsaw summit by deploying four battalion combat teams in our region.
"The multinational, persistent and rotational force of the allies is a good solution for the current security situation here.”
Jugaste said, “We are not looking for Cold War style confrontation, soldier-to-soldier or tank-to-tank."
Elsewhere, Pauline Massart, deputy director (Security and Global Europe) at Friends of Europe, the leading Brussels-based think tank, believes a Russian invasion of the Baltics, and hence more Nato brigades in the region, is not what Europe should be worried about.
She said, “Vladimir Putin has a lot to lose and not much to gain by invading a Nato member nation.
“What we should be worried about is our lack of an efficient response to Russia's potent "hybrid warfare" tactics, comprising a massive propaganda machine, cyber attacks (often difficult to attribute), funding Europe's extreme right, Putin's play on the refugee crisis, his strategy in Syria, and perhaps more worrying, his newfound friendship with Erdoğan."