As European nations scramble to build up their armies in the face of Russian aggression and uncertain US security guarantees, countries from Germany to Croatia are looking to introduce new forms of military service, including mandatory enlistment. But even as ‘conscription’ has become a buzzword in European capitals, it’s still unlikely to return in full force across the continent.
After the Cold War, European countries significantly shrunk both their armed forces and defence budgets under the assumption that Moscow no longer posed a threat. Fast forward over three decades and Russia’s nearly four-year-long war of aggression in Ukraine has dramatically shifted the defence landscape — and left Europe more vulnerable than ever.
Since Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014 — setting the stage for its eventual full-scall invasion in 2022 — several European countries have reintroduced compulsory military service, including Lithuania (2015), Sweden (2017) and Latvia (2023). From next year, Croatia will become the tenth country to rely on a conscription model.
But analysts and military advocates warn that, for most EU member states, reviving conscription would be premature because the basic conditions needed to make it work simply do not exist.
“Right now, Europe does not yet have the barracks, training ranges, or instructors needed to absorb large conscript cohorts,” Chris Kremidas-Courtney, a senior visiting fellow at the European Policy Centre (EPC), told The Parliament.
“We also don’t have the leadership culture and career pathways required to retain talent after compulsory service ends nor a public consensus in every country on reviving national service,” he added.
Across Europe, approaches differ widely. Countries such as Austria, Cyprus, Denmark and Greece never abolished conscription following the Cold War. Others have relied on a combination of all-volunteer and professional forces over the last decades.
Meanwhile, earlier this month, thousands of German citizens took to the streets to protest against the government’s decision to introduce mandatory registration and medical screening for every 18-year-old man from January 2026, fearing it could eventually lead to the reintroduction of conscription.
Berlin’s current military plan aims to modernize its armed forces and recruit an additional 80,000 soldiers and 160,000 reservists over the next decade. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has vowed to build the biggest army in the European Union by 2031.
But Merz has also left the door open to reviving mandatory service, at least for a limited number of people, if the targets are not met or the geopolitical situation requires it.
Meanwhile, France last month followed Poland in unveiling a new 10-month voluntary military training scheme to attract more 18- to 19-year-olds to the active armed forces or the reserves. Yet Germany, France and Poland have all stopped short of reinstating conscription.
For Emmanuel Jacobs, president of EUROMIL, the umbrella organisation for military personnel associations in Europe, voluntary military service will only succeed if it offers “real added value,” That means proper training, meaningful roles, fair pay and a clear path into the professional forces or the reserve.
But Europe’s effort to recruit more soldiers also faces a wider cultural challenge, analysts say.
In the United States, serving in the military is often a family tradition and a source of pride. Across much of Europe, by contrast, the civic and societal value attached to military service largely faded after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Now, younger generations in particular see little incentive to put their careers and personal lives on hold in order to serve their country, especially when faced with the prospect of the “scale of war our grandparents endured”, as described by NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte earlier this month.
But first, stop the bleeding
Europe’s biggest problem is not recruitment — it’s retention. As the continent races to strengthen its defences to prepare for a potential Russian attack that some EU member states have estimated could come within the next five years, its armed forces are losing talent faster than they can recruit it.
Unless this crisis is resolved, warned the EPC’s Kremidas-Courtney, recruitment-driven expansion will be “a statistical illusion.”
The number of troops in Europe — including the UK — has dropped from well over 3 million in the 1990s to 1.47 million today, according to the latest figures from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
Since the post–Cold War drawdown, ageing populations, ballooning welfare systems and the declining appeal of military careers have made it increasingly difficult for European countries to staff even relatively small armies.
Now, most European countries, particularly those on the continent’s eastern flank, are under strain to ready their militaries to face a mounting Russian threat, according to Linda Slapakova, a research leader at RAND Europe.
“Even when countries have relatively strong national defence systems, social and demographic change can still make it difficult to recruit, develop and retain sufficient numbers of people for what the threat environment demands,” she told The Parliament.
Second, make the military attractive again
With European countries preparing to assume a greater leadership role within NATO by 2027, the clock is ticking — and recruitment targets have been missed for years.
Retention issues first appeared as a major concern in 2011 among soldiers’ rights groups and have only worsened since, according to a 2024 EUROMIL survey.
“Without strong recruitment and retention measures, we risk having advanced systems but not enough trained people to operate or maintain them,” EUROMIL’s Jacobs said.
Poor work–life balance, understaffing, limited career progression and uncompetitive pay and benefits were among the most frequently cited reasons for declining morale and rising attrition, the survey showed.
For EUROMIL, the solution to the EU’s retention crisis needs to begin with turning the armed forces into attractive, modern employers offering competitive salaries, predictable working conditions, modern leadership, proper housing and equipment, and full social rights.
“Without this, Europe will continue to lose skilled personnel, no matter what military service model is chosen,” Jacobs said.
Is the Swedish model replicable?
Amid the debate over how to attract new military recruits, Sweden could offer a paradigm for other European countries, experts say.
Sweden abolished conscription in 2010 and the shift to voluntary military service quickly proved unsustainable, as low wages and societal perception made the option unattractive to young generations.
The outcome was stark: seven out of 10 soldiers in the all-volunteer system dropped out before their contracts expired, forcing the country to introduce a selective compulsory model just seven years later.
Today, Sweden calls up a proportion of 18-year-olds for military training based on need rather than universal conscription. Consequently, only some of the young men and women required by the armed forces each year actually enlist, and those selected are deemed the most suitable for service based on a multi-stage screening process involving questionnaires and tests.
The Swedish model "could be replicable in other member states, but it would have to be politically and culturally palatable,” RAND’s Slapakova said.
She added: “Selective national service models still have an element of mandated service for some individuals, which could be an unpopular measure and therefore politically difficult to achieve."
For EUROMIL’s Jacobs, the key to a successful recruitment model is to “invest in people.”
“Europe’s future defence will rely on a balanced mix of professional forces, a well-trained and active reserve, and targeted voluntary service programmes," he said.
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