A weary Portuguese electorate will head to the polls on Sunday for the third time in just over three years, with the centre-right Democratic Alliance polling in first place but unlikely to secure an outright majority — raising the prospect of continued political gridlock.
The election was called after Prime Minister Luís Montenegro, who leads the Democratic Alliance (AD), faced a parliamentary vote of no confidence in March. Lawmakers called the motion in the wake of media allegations that Montenegro was profiting from a consulting firm run by his sons. He has consistently denied breaking the law.
The vote comes as Portuguese citizens — contending with rising living costs, a housing crisis, a crumbling national health service and concerns over immigration — have voiced growing dissatisfaction in the country’s seemingly unstable political environment, experts say.
“The electorate is a bit fatigued and people are feeling kind of let down,” José Tomaz Castello Branco, a professor at the Institute for Political Studies at the Catholic University of Portugal told The Parliament.
Montenegro — in power for less than 11 months before his government collapsed — hails from the centre-right Social Democratic Party (PSD), which had joined forces with the conservative CDS–People's Party (CDS-PP) to form the Democratic Alliance.
A poll released by ICS/ISCTE on Friday showed AD leading the centre-left Socialist Party 32% to 27%. The far-right Chega party, once considered a threat to the establishment, was trailing behind in third place, at 18%, the poll showed.
“Our data shows the Portuguese are very, very tired of elections. They are tired of the instability,” Lea Heyde, a researcher with the University of Lisbon’s Institute of Social Sciences who worked on the ICS/ISCTE poll, told The Parliament. Portuguese voters “really wish for a stable government,” she added, “and I think this is one of the reasons why we can see a lasting support for Luis Montenegro.”
While AD remains ahead, polling suggests it is unlikely to secure a majority, pointing toward protracted coalition talks that result in another fragmented parliament.
The Socialists, AD's main opposition, are still recovering from the abrupt resignation of former Prime Minister António Costa in late 2023 amid a corruption investigation. Costa, who now heads the European Council, has denied the allegations and charges were never brought.
Portugal’s alternative coalition options?
Portugal employs a proportional representation system, meaning that for a party to gain a parliamentary majority it needs at least 42% of the vote, a threshold both leading parties currently fall short of.
Montenegro has repeatedly ruled out partnering with Chega, Portugal’s third largest political force. The right-wing party saw a spike in support last year, but that enthusiasm has since waned.
“They mobilised a lot of voters, especially a lot of non-voters, and a lot people voted for them," Heyde said. "We know that by now [it was] a sort of protest vote … from those that wanted to express their critique of the political establishment,” she explained.
Meanwhile, Montenegro’s Social Democratic Party could look to form a grand coalition with the Socialists — in what would be the first such alliance since 1983. “No one is expecting that possibility. It would be quite dramatic,” said Tomaz Castello Branco, adding that such an outcome would make Chega the main opposition party.
Polling shows that almost 20% of voters are still undecided, meaning a range of outcomes is possible on Sunday. But experts largely expect the results to culminate in a Democratic Alliance-led minority government.
“In the end, it turns out that after the elections, the situation may be very well what [it] was before the elections,” said Tomaz Castello Branco.
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