On Sunday, Romanian voters will cast their ballots for the second time in six months. The presidential election rerun marks a climax — but not necessarily the end — of a political crisis that has engulfed the country and worried its European partners since last autumn.
The outcome could reshape Romania’s democratic standing and has implications for the European Union and NATO.
“If Romania is no longer with Brussels on Europe’s eastern flank, we can expect to have a destabilisation effect that could spread all over,” Sergiu Miscoiu, a professor of political science at Babeș-Bolyai University in Romania, told The Parliament.
The country’s political landscape was upended in November when Calin Georgescu, then a little-known ultranationalist, emerged as the surprise frontrunner in the first round of the presidential race. His advancement to the runoff, against Elena Lasconi of the progressive Save Romania Union (USR), came as a shock to EU leaders.
Soon after, allegations of electoral violations and Russian interference surfaced. Declassified intelligence pointed to a coordinated campaign on TikTok promoting Georgescu’s candidacy. Moscow has denied any involvement.
Romania’s Constitutional Court annulled the vote in December, citing evidence of cyberattacks on the electoral IT system and “massive” social media manipulation in Georgescu’s favour. The European Commission launched its own investigation into whether TikTok had breached the EU’s Digital Services Act by failing to mitigate threats to Romania’s democratic process. The app counts around 8.5 million adult users in the country of 19 million.
Crisis of trust in Romania's democracy?
The legal effort to safeguard Romania’s democratic process presented a paradox: With their stated interest in upholding the rule of law, the country’s political and judicial institutions helped contribute to an impression that they were interfering with it.
“The annulment deepened public distrust in Romania's institutions,” Veronica Anghel, an assistant professor at the Robert Schuman Centre, a research institute in Florence, told The Parliament. “It reinforced conspiracy narratives that were already present and energised far-right forces.”
The political ban of Georgescu, who has praised Vladimir Putin, criticised NATO and the EU, and questioned support for Ukraine, triggered protests and some violence in Bucharest, the national capital. Many of his supporters accused the country’s establishment of a coup, by blocking his participation and denying the popular will he represents.
They enjoyed the backing of international allies, with far-right and populist leaders across Europe calling the court’s intervention anti-democratic. From the US, Donald Trump Jr., Vice President JD Vance and Elon Musk decried the annulment as a sign that European institutions were engaged in censorship.
Too close of an affiliation with Trump could backfire on Romania’s far right, however, as “many voters see Trump’s deal with Russia at the expense of security in eastern Europe,” Sergiu said.
New far-right frontrunner
With Georgescu out, the far-right Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) turned to George Simion as its pick for president. Following separate elections for parliament in December, AUR is now Romania’s second-largest party. Simion is polling ahead of other candidates, including Nicușor Dan, the centrist independent mayor of Bucharest, and Crin Antonescu, the candidate for the governing pro-EU coalition.
Simion has positioned himself as the torchbearer of nationalist voters. His support, estimated at around 33%, reflects a consolidation of the far-right electorate, effectively absorbing Georgescu’s former base.
“Simeon has made efforts to appear more presidential, more moderate,” Miscoiu said. “The support from the mass movement led by Giorgescu will prove complementary. Many voters with financial and social problems will vote for the far right.”
Antonescu, the establishment’s candidate, is hoping to benefit from his coalition’s broad reach. That may not be enough, though, and Romania’s diaspora, which accounts for some 7% of the vote, could prove pivotal. In the first round, Georgescu dominated that slice of the electorate, capturing over 40% of it.
Dan, the Bucharest mayor, could appeal to those expatriate voters, but he remains relatively unknown outside the capital.
The biggest loser may end up being Elena Lasconi, who faced Georgescu in the original runoff and also criticised its annulment. This time, she is polling around 7%, dimming her chances of making it to the second round.
Should no candidate win a majority on Sunday, the top two contenders of the first round will square off on 18 May.
A pivotal race on Europe’s eastern flank
The EU, wary of another nationalist voice within its ranks, is closely monitoring the vote. Russia’s expansionist designs have given Romania greater strategic importance along the bloc’s eastern external borders.
Romania is a neighbour of Ukraine and shares a coastline with the Black Sea, making it an important NATO outpost. The Euro-Atlantic alliance, of which it is a member, hosts thousands of troops there, including a French-led battlegroup. Romania’s Mihail Kogălniceanu air base is on track to become one of the alliance’s largest by 2030.
While Romania’s presidency is partly ceremonial, the office carries weight in shaping foreign and defence policy. The president serves as commander-in-chief and wields considerable influence over national security.
“There's a real risk that Romania could become the newest troublemaker,” Anghel said. “If Romania falters under this far-right pressure and Simeon wins, it won't just be a national crisis. It will be another crack in the European project.”
A win for a candidate hostile to the EU and NATO could further complicate efforts to support Ukraine and contain Russian influence. The president would be able to hinder key decisions in the European Council, where unanimity is required for sanctions and other foreign policy matters, joining Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and Slovakia’s Robert Fico.
Despite forming a grand pro-European coalition government after the December parliamentary elections, Romania’s centrist parties face mounting criticism. Their attempt to project stability in the face of geopolitical uncertainty has failed to stem popular disillusionment.
Years of macroeconomic growth have not trickled down to many Romanians. Rural regions and post-industrial towns, in particular, have seen little tangible improvement. High inflation, stagnant wages and strained public services have fed resentment as well as the perception that centrist and establishment parties are corrupt, disconnected and beholden to foreign interests.
“The government coalition was a mere reproduction of the former,” Miscoiu said. “There were attempts at reform, but they could not be concretised.”
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