The verdict against Marine Le Pen in late March, finding her guilty of embezzling European Union funds, has provoked a furious reaction foremost among her nationalist allies in France and beyond. It further feeds an anti-establishment narrative that sees a political elite conspiring against them.
Courts are hardly immune to these suspicions.
Not too long ago, evidence of criminal wrongdoing could destroy a political career. In 2019, when footage emerged of the leader of Austria’s far-right Freedom Party promising government contracts to a woman presenting herself as a Russian oligarch, the government it was part of collapsed and the party fell into disarray.
Now, populist figures more readily lean into their legal troubles. Suffering in a court of law can strengthen their position in the court of public opinion. Le Pen has railed against the “tyranny of judges,” saying the system has dropped a “nuclear bomb,” and has vowed to keep fighting.
Le Pen's party, National Rally, has rushed to her defence. Even some of her political opponents have raised concerns about the ruling.
“The narrative of her party is that this is a stitch-up by the elite. And they're going to portray this as that. And some people will be convinced by that,” said Ronan McCrea, professor of constitutional and European law at University College London. “I don't think it's correct because it does seem that they're guilty of quite serious offences. But the problem is the public aren't paying that level of detailed attention.”
The "stitch-up" narrative echoes across European borders. In December, amid allegations of Russian interference, Romania’s Constitutional Court annulled a presidential election after the first round in which a far-right candidate, Călin Georgescu, took the lead; he has since been barred from the re-run.
More generally, the determination by mainstream parties to keep the far right out of coalition governments, most notably in Germany where the Alternative for Germany (AfD) placed second in February’s elections, is widely seen on the right as an anti-democratic attempt to suppress such parties and the views they represent.
“What we are witnessing today in France is the collapse of democracy and a total denial of the will of the French people through their representatives,” said Eddy Casterman, a member of the French National Assembly who is an ally of Le Pen.
“France has often given lessons in the rule of law to other countries,” he told The Parliament. “But France shut down a popular television channel, put a former president of the Republic in prison and prevented a leader of the opposition from running in the presidential election.”
This narrative is being amplified by outside influences. US Vice President JD Vance has criticised what he describes as attempts by the European mainstream to stifle free speech, referring specifically to the Romanian case. Elon Musk, who is close to President Donald Trump, referred to that case as an “abuse of the judicial system.” The Kremlin, which has jailed or discredited many of its opponents, deplored the decision as a “violation of democratic norms.”
Banned from office
The Le Pen case is so explosive because it could affect the outcome of France's 2027 presidential elections. Le Pen has gotten closer to the presidency with each of her three successive bids and is by some measures France’s most popular politician.
With President Emmanuel Macron constitutionally barred from seeking a third term, her supporters saw 2027 as the year she would finally win.
“The objective [of the court] is crystal clear,” Casterman told The Parliament. “It is to prevent the favourite from running in the next presidential election.”
Le Pen's immediate political ban is rare but, given a tighter anti-corruption law passed in 2016, not as unique as allies such as Jean-Paul Garraud, a National Rally MEP and a former judge, have tried to portray it.
“You have a presumed innocent person who is appealing but is condemned to immediate political death,” Garraud told The Parliament, though the existing verdict means Le Pen is no longer presumed innocent. A higher court will have to rule in her favour to clear her of wrongdoing.
A former mayor and a former prime minister have faced similar "provisional" bans. Le Pen's, however, is the highest-profile and most consequential use of such powers in modern French history. With the appeals process underway, the jail time component of Le Pen's sentence is on hold. Her political future rests on the next instance overturning the lower court's decision before the 2027 election.
“It's a real dilemma for the French parties. You can't just say, ‘She's a very popular political candidate, we're not going to punish her for being part of a systematic defrauding of the public’,” said McCrea. “On the other hand, in the current political context, it'll probably strengthen her movement.”
Several deputies in the National Assembly have questioned whether the law was interpreted correctly. A visibly troubled Prime Minister Francois Bayrou said that “France is the only country to do this,” adding that “it’s our job to make sure the law corresponds to what the French want.”
Justice Minister Gérald Darmanin has called for a timely appeal hearing for Le Pen – while also defending the magistrates and deploring threats made against them.
Whatever the eventual outcome of the case, it demonstrates how courts are coming under pressure from the polarisation of European politics. And when voters start to think courts serve political interests rather than the rule of law, democratic principles themselves are at risk.
Testing the limits
Growing mistrust of courts emboldens governments to curb their powers or ignore their rulings – especially governments led by right-wing parties whose supporters see themselves as victims of judicial bias. Many are now testing the limits, using the hot-button topic of migration to override the courts.
In Italy, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni revived plans to enable the repatriation of migrants to Albania. Italian courts have so far struck down detention orders on human rights grounds, preventing deportations to a new Albanian facility. But Meloni’s move has circumvented the legal objections by designating the facility as a “repatriation detention centre.”
The pattern is being repeated across Europe. The previous UK government effectively overruled the Supreme Court with its Rwanda asylum plan, which was later shut down by the current Labour government. Finland is also bidding to extend migrant pushback laws, despite legal warnings.
The legal system is “the foundational principle of all democracies. In order to have a democracy, you need to have the rule of law,” said Joelle Grogan, head of research at the UK in a Changing Europe think tank. “[If] you have that political influence and political control in courts, you no longer have rule of law. You have rule of politics."
She called verdicts like the one against Le Pen “actually a sign of a healthy democracy” because they reflect a check on power.
“When it's very concerning is when states and governments start attacking judges and attacking the very system itself,” Grogan added.
In France, Le Pen and her allies are unlikely to forget these events. If anything, they are confident the case will bolster their chances of taking the presidency and inflicting a reckoning on the French establishment.
“In 2027, I am convinced that Marine Le Pen will be elected as president of the Republic, and Jordan Bardella as prime minister. This ticket has been maintained, despite everything that has been done against us,” Garraud, the RN MEP, said. “Of course, the judicial system will be reformed.”
This story has been updated to include additional context about the nature of political bans due to the 2016 law.
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