Poland’s presidential election this weekend isn’t only a referendum on Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s reform agenda: It will determine whether his most ambitious plans can go ahead.
The president’s role is largely ceremonial but wields a crucial veto over new legislation. The incumbent – Andrzej Duda, from the opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party — has used this to block much of Tusk’s agenda, which focuses on dismantling controversial judicial and media reforms implemented by the last PiS government.
“There is currently a lack of cohabitation between the government and the president,” Maria Skora, an advisor on European politics at the European Policy Council, told The Parliament. “Duda is not cooperating, especially on issues relating to the judiciary and the erosion of democracy.”
Sunday's election pits Warsaw's mayor, Rafał Trzaskowski, from Tusk’s Civic Platform party, against Karol Nawrocki, a conservative candidate supported by PiS, alongside half a dozen minor candidates. If neither wins an outright majority, a runoff will be held on 1 June.
Trzaskowski is narrowly ahead in the polls. If he triumphs, the path will be open for Tusk to move ahead with his agenda on judicial independence, climate policy and military modernisation — repairing ties with the European institutions, which have alleged that the PiS reforms undermined the rule of law.
Reform agenda stalls under Duda
Tusk previously served as prime minister from 2007-2014, and then as president of the European Council until 2019. He became prime minister again in late 2023, and moved quickly to roll back many of the changes made by the PiS government of the previous eight years.
“As the former president of the European Council, Tusk has certainly made Poland salonfähig again and given it a kind of reliability in Europe,” Hendrik Vos, a professor at the Ghent Institute for International and European Studies, told The Parliament — using a German term that can loosely be translated as "socially acceptable."
Relations between Warsaw and Brussels deteriorated sharply during PiS’s 2015–2023 rule. The European Commission in June 2023 began infringement proceedings over judicial reforms, warning of backsliding on rule of law and democratic checks.
By February 2024, Tusk had managed to unfreeze €137 billion of EU funds by committing to restore judicial independence. In practice, however, the going has been tough as Duda has used his powers and influence to slow down the counter-reforms.
Elsewhere, Tusk’s government has unveiled a €150 billion investment plan targeting infrastructure and green energy, increased defence spending to 4.7% of GDP, and moved to improve LGBTQ+ and reproductive rights — while battling the constant threat of a veto from the conservative president.
Competing visions for Poland
Trzaskowski, a former MEP adviser, narrowly lost to Duda in the 2020 presidential race. As one of the most recognisable faces of Civic Platform, he is positioning himself as a reformist capable of consolidating pro-European forces within Poland. His platform includes plans to increase defence spending to 5% of GDP, liberalise abortion laws, and strengthen the country’s tech and arms sectors. He remains a staunch advocate of deeper EU integration.
But public enthusiasm for the ruling coalition has cooled since its parliamentary victory. Tensions within the multi-party alliance, the slow pace of reform, and Tusk’s hardening stance on immigration have all dented support.
Nawrocki, a conservative historian from Gdansk and head of Poland’s Institute of National Remembrance, offers a stark alternative. He is polling in second place and campaigning on tax cuts, a rollback of progressive reforms, and firm opposition to EU climate and migration policies. He supports strong defence spending, but rejects liberal positions on abortion and LGBTQ+ rights.
The PiS-backed candidate recently received a public boost from US President Donald Trump, who hosted him at the White House earlier this month. “He wanted to highlight his presidential allure and ability to uphold the US-Polish alliance on issues of defence and security,” Skora said.
Nawrocki’s appeal rests on his image as a traditionalist and political outsider — in contrast to Trzaskowski’s centrist credentials. Despite corruption allegations that dogged PiS in its final years in office, the party’s voter base remains resilient.
Could Poland's far right decide election?
Public frustration with the political establishment is also fuelling support for outsider candidates like Slawomir Mentzen, leader of the far-right New Hope party, who is polling in third place. Running on a platform of radical deregulation, minimal support for Ukraine in its war against Russia, and a retreat from Brussels-led initiatives, Mentzen has positioned himself as a voice for voters disillusioned with both PiS and Civic Platform.
“He speaks to young voters who don’t remember anything else but the faces of [former PiS prime minister] Jaroslaw Kaczynski and Tusk,” said Skora.
The strength of Mentzen and other candidates means neither of the frontrunners is likely to win outright this weekend — and the runoff could hinge on where other candidates’ supporters give their second preference.
“The leading candidates are painfully aware that the voters of the far-right candidate might become the kingmakers,” Skora said. “It remains to be seen if they vote for Nawrocki, Trzaskowski, or don’t vote at all.”
Brussels will be watching closely. A win for Nawrocki could usher in a new era of institutional deadlock, curbing the government’s ability to deliver on its pro-European mandate. A Trzaskowski victory could unblock Tusk’s reforms and open the door to deeper cooperation on climate, defence, and the rule of law.
“A more self-confident Poland with fewer internal problems could position itself more assertively internationally,” said Vos of the Ghent Institute for International and European Studies. “Poland could fully participate alongside that Franco-German engine and put Eastern European themes higher on the agenda.”
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