Last week, I wrote that NATO allies were heading into the Ankara summit with one goal: keep Washington committed by showing Trump that Europe is finally paying its share. After two days in the Turkish capital, it's fair to say the charm offensive worked — at least for now.
By NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte's own account, the July 7-8 summit was a "tremendous success." Trump departed largely satisfied, despite opening the gathering with familiar complaints. He accused European allies of failing to back the U.S. during the conflict with Iran, threatened trade retaliation against Spain and revived his interest in acquiring Greenland.
By the summit's close, however, weeks of public praise from Rutte and an agenda centered on higher defense spending and new industrial deals appeared to have softened his tone.
As one EU lawmaker told me afterward, Trump speaks to his own electorate, not to European capitals. He knows he can't follow through on threats like cutting ties with Spain, but the headlines still play well at home.
The substance behind the diplomacy was significant. Allies announced at least $50 billion in new defense contracts on the summit's opening day, including $40 billion earmarked for counter-drone capability over five years, part of Rutte’s push for a "Made in NATO" approach.
That model, however, sits uneasily alongside the EU's drive to prioritize European suppliers through its SAFE loan program and Ukraine funding, and analysts remain divided over how much American industry will ultimately benefit. NATO officials say the bigger constraint isn't demand — it's whether industry on either side of the Atlantic has the capacity to deliver.
Despite the criticism on arrival, Trump ultimately endorsed a declaration that largely reflected the message allies wanted to project. The summit's six-point declaration reaffirmed Article 5 commitments, pledged at least $70 billion in support for Ukraine this year and, for the first time, explicitly recognized that European allies and Canada are carrying a larger share of the alliance's conventional defense burden — the "burden shifting" language officials had previewed before the summit.
European allies and Canada are now expected to invest some extra $258 billion in core defense spending across 2025 and 2026, though the increases remain uneven. The Baltic states are already nearing 5% of GDP, while France, Italy, Spain and the U.K. still face a steeper climb toward the 3.5% target by 2035.
The next test is already on the books: a U.S. review of its military footprint in Europe, expected to weigh cuts to American air, sea and land contributions.
The priority now, officials and analysts say, is investing collectively in the strategic capabilities Washington could withdraw or that Europe leans on too heavily — satellite intelligence, counter-drone systems, air defense and long-range precision artillery. The sooner allies acquire them, the sooner Europe builds its own strategic autonomy.
Ankara didn't resolve NATO's underlying tension between American retrenchment and European capability. It bought time. Whether Europe uses it wisely is now the question that matters most.
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What we’re reading
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What we’re following
The European Commission has put forward a series of stringent measures aimed at limiting imports originating from Israeli settlements in the West Bank that are considered illegal under international law. The proposals will be reviewed by foreign ministers during a meeting in Brussels on Monday.
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