For decades, the European Union has struggled to define its relationship with Turkey. Accession talks have stalled, democratic backsliding has accelerated and recurring political disputes have strained ties. Yet cooperation has endured on migration, energy, security and regional stability, reflecting a partnership that neither side is prepared to abandon.
Today, that strategic ambiguity is becoming harder to sustain.
With Washington hesitant to underwrite European security, and conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East reshaping the continent's strategic landscape, Ankara has leveraged its military capabilities, expanding defense industry and pivotal geographic position to establish itself at the center of Europe's security calculations.
For European policymakers, it begs the urgent question of how to reconcile Turkey's strategic value with stubborn and growing concerns over democratic backsliding and the rule of law.
According to Dorothée Schmid, head of the Turkey program at the French Institute of International Relations, nowhere is that tension more on display than in the fragmented European approach to security and defense.
Some governments, particularly in Central and Eastern Europe, have become more supportive of closer cooperation with Turkey following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Others, including Spain and Italy, favor maintaining a pragmatic partnership without fundamentally redefining the relationship, while France and Germany acknowledge Ankara's strategic importance but remain wary of its increasingly autonomous middle-power status.
“The EU has never been clear about what it wants from Turkey and has often relied on a transactional approach,” Schmid said, arguing that Europe will need a more coherent strategy if it wants to build a more effective partnership.
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan hopes the NATO summit in Ankara will reinforce Turkey's claim to a central role in Euro-Atlantic security. But Schmid argues that Ankara's ambitions continue to collide with political realities.
To her, Turkey's increasingly authoritarian trajectory, recurring disputes within NATO — particularly over Cyprus — and its complex relationship with Moscow will continue to complicate efforts to forge a common agenda with its European partners.
Europe's trust deficit
Earlier this year, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen drew criticism in Turkey while making the case for EU enlargement, saying the bloc "must succeed in completing the European continent so that it is not influenced by Russia, Turkey or China."
The remark made headlines in Turkey and breathed new life into an old question: Does Brussels view Ankara as a future member, a neighboring power to be managed or something in between? A Commission spokesperson later reiterated that Turkey remains "unquestionably an important partner" for the bloc.
But for Demir Murat, an academic fellow at the European Policy Centre, the episode was something more than a rhetorical slip.
"The EU needs Turkey, but there is a significant gap in trust," he said.
That ambivalence, Murat argued, is mirrored across the EU's institutions, where the European Parliament has been more outspoken than other institutions about Turkey's democratic backsliding.
"In terms of democracy, rule of law and human rights, the Commission and the Council are much more pragmatic," he said. "We see this kind of double approach towards Turkey."
The divide was on display in a recent European Parliament report, which described Turkey as the EU candidate country experiencing the greatest democratic deterioration in recent years. Lawmakers called for accession talks to remain frozen and urged the Commission to adopt a tougher stance on democratic backsliding.
Its lead negotiator, Nacho Sánchez Amor, a Spanish member of the Socialists and Democrats group, pointed to the detention of elected mayors — including the March detention of Istanbul Mayor and presidential candidate Ekrem İmamoğlu — and the sustained pressure on the political opposition as evidence of Turkey's democratic decline.
According to Murat, however, the EU's overriding priority has become avoiding confrontation with Ankara as cooperation grows more important. The danger, he argued, is that pragmatism gradually crowds out principles.
"Sometimes it reaches the point where there is no criticism, or the language becomes extremely careful," he said. "You can't simply abandon your values because you need a country."
Partners in security
Turkey's defense industry is becoming increasingly important to Europe's rearmament effort. In 2025, the sector posted a record year, with roughly 56% of its $10 billion in exports going to European NATO allies and the United States.
Yet Erdoğan is seeking more than commercial success. Speaking to parliamentary delegates from all 32 NATO member states in Istanbul in late June, he argued that Turkey's contribution to European security is undervalued and renewed Ankara's call to participate fully in the continent's defense and security initiatives.
For now, that ambition faces significant barriers.
Turkey remains largely excluded from the EU's core defense frameworks due to objections from some member states and eligibility criteria linked to democratic standards and the rule of law. The European Parliament recently reinforced that position, calling for Turkey to be excluded from the defense-related components of the bloc's next Horizon Europe research program.
Loucas Fourlas, a Cypriot member of the European People's Party, said that security and defense cooperation cannot be detached from the broader political relationship.
“Such cooperation cannot be based solely on military capabilities,” he said, adding that Turkey's continued military presence in Northern Cyprus and its disputes with Greece are standing in the way of a deeper partnership. “These are serious issues that directly affect European security.”
Overlooking those disputes, he argued, would signal that violations of international law can be set aside when geopolitical interests demand it.
Yet some experts say Europe's push to strengthen its military readiness will create new openings for cooperation with Turkey, even if broader political disputes remain unresolved.
According to Sinem Bal, a fellow at the Centre for Applied Turkey Studies at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, defense-industrial ties are likely to deepen in the coming years — but in a selective and pragmatic manner rather than through a broader political rapprochement.
No easy answers
EU-Turkey cooperation has become increasingly difficult to avoid in an era of geopolitical instability. But unlike the early 2000s, Ankara no longer approaches Europe primarily as an aspiring member. Instead, it has emerged as a middle power with its own regional ambitions, pursuing a more independent foreign policy and seeking greater strategic autonomy.
“Turkey is difficult to ignore,” Bal said. The challenge for European leaders, she argued, will be finding ways to work with Ankara without granting it direct political influence over European decision-making.
Turkey’s growing regional weight in migration, energy, security and defense has not erased longstanding tensions. Instead, it has made them harder to disentangle from Europe's broader strategic interests.
Murat argued that none of the major points of contention are likely to be resolved anytime soon.
“As long as Turkey is moving away from democratic norms, it will be very difficult for the EU to take further steps,” he said.
For the foreseeable future, Turkey is likely to remain outside the EU’s institutional framework while becoming increasingly central to the bloc's strategic calculations.
“The role of Turkey expands when necessity outweighs European discomfort with what is perceived as democratic decline under Erdoğan, and contracts when Europeans believe the costs of sidelining Ankara are manageable,” Schmid said.
For now, strategic necessity appears to have the upper hand.
As NATO allies gather in Ankara on July 7-8, the focus is expected to be less on the democratic and political disputes and more on the practical question confronting European capitals: how to work with a country they don't fully trust but cannot afford to ignore.
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