Only two weeks after Washington’s unconvincing attempt at transatlantic reconciliation at the Munich Security Conference, U.S. President Donald Trump has once again placed Europe at a moral and strategic crossroads.
After several rounds of fruitless U.S-Iran nuclear negotiations, Washington and Tel Aviv launched a series of strikes on Saturday, targeting Tehran’s missile infrastructure, military sites and senior leaders. The coordinated attacks killed Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and triggered retaliatory strikes by Iran against neighboring countries.
The EU’s response has been incoherent. The bloc’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, has called for “maximum restraint, protection of civilians, and full respect for international law,” while European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has cautiously backed regime change in Iran.
Member states are also divided. Spain quickly condemned the U.S. and Israel’s “unilateral military action,” while German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said this is not the time to lecture Washington on international law. During a visit to the Oval Office on Tuesday, Merz remained mostly silent as Trump threatened to escalate his trade war with Europe in response to Madrid’s sluggish defense spending and criticism of the Iran strikes.
The mixed messaging weakens the bloc’s credibility, MEP Hannah Neumann (Greens/DE), chair of the European Parliament’s delegation for relations with Iran, told The Parliament, and risks portraying Europe as “reactive” rather than a strategic player.
Europe’s leverage in the conflict may be limited, particularly as it isn’t yet a unified military force. But, Neumann said, the bloc still wields political and economic power, “and in moments of accelerating norm erosion, that matters. International law applies to all actors, regardless of power or alignment, and unity is not cosmetic — it is a strategic asset.”
The EU’s limited leverage
Four days into the campaign, Europeans are once again watching from a distance as a war unfolds that is not theirs. But it is one in which they have significant interests at stake — from energy flows and trade routes to broader security risks.
During the clerical regime’s bloody crackdown on protesters in January, the EU piled on fresh sanctions and voted to designate the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps a terrorist organization, freezing all of Theran’s funds and assets across the continent.
"This shift by the European Union towards a much tougher stance on Iran has prevented it from exercising the kind of leadership it had in 2015," Rosa Meneses, deputy director at the Centre for Contemporary Arab Studies, told The Parliament.
Back then, the EU — particularly France, Germany, and the United Kingdom — led the diplomatic efforts to sign an agreement with the U.S., Russia and China to prevent Iran from developing nuclear capabilities.
Today, communication with Israel and the U.S. is strained, and the bloc’s influence in the region has eroded — a result of its lack of common foreign policy, limited hard power, perceived double standards between Ukraine and Gaza and the growing role of other powers in the region, such as China and Russia.
“If you don't have economic power combined with great military power, you will not be a force to be reckoned with in such conflicts,” MEP Bart Groothuis (Renew Europe/NL) told The Parliament, adding that the EU should stop “whining” about international law. “We need to think about our interests and see what we can offer in terms of assistance,” he said.
Europe's options in Iran
Tehran has threatened to expand its attacks beyond the Middle East and said that any European involvement will be regarded as an “act of war.” The warning came a day after a UK air base in Cyprus — an EU member state — was targeted by Iranian drones.
“The missile attacks on Cyprus have clearly shown European vulnerability not only in the East but also on the Southern flank,” said Peter Hefele, policy director at the Brussels-based Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies.
At present, the European Commission is coordinating assistance and funding for the repatriation of European citizens. Meanwhile, France is deploying drones, a frigate and its only aircraft carrier to the region, while Greece and the UK are sending air defence forces to Cyprus.
A Commission’s spokesperson told reporters on Monday that the bloc will also discuss the use of the mutual defense clause, Article 42.7, as Cyprus is not a NATO ally and therefore is not covered by the U.S. security umbrella.
Mostly, though, the EU’s efforts seem to focus on preparation for potential impacts on energy security, supply chain disruptions and migratory flows.
The International Organization for Migration has warned of internal displacement and migration should the conflict drag out.
Meanwhile, Iran’s blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route for oil and gas, is already causing price increases that will be felt by European consumers. Analysts consulted by The Parliament said Europe should prepare for a potential LNG shock, as the bloc’s gas inventories are at their lowest level since the peak of the energy crisis in 2022.
But beyond protecting its own interests and citizens in the region, the bloc has limited room for manoeuvre.
According to Neumann, the EU can help contain escalation by focusing on areas where it has tangible instruments, such as coordinated diplomacy, sanctions enforcement, crisis protection for its citizens and sustained engagement with Gulf countries.
Hefele also pointed to Europe’s potential contribution in the maritime domain, where existing military operations aimed at strengthening regional security could be reinforced.
Nevertheless, Neumann said, “Europe’s responsibility is not regime engineering, but standing consistently on the side of human rights, accountability and self-determination.”
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