When unmarked drones shut down Danish airspace on Monday 22 September, authorities could have been excused for their stunted response to what could have been a one-off threat from a rogue actor.
But fast-forward a week and more sightings have followed, forcing a nationwide drone ban just as EU-leaders prepare to gather in Copenhagen for an informal defence summit on Wednesday.
The scramble that followed — Sweden rushing in an anti-drone system and lending radar equipment, a German frigate docking in Copenhagen, and France dispatching troops — has left Europe looking disjointed and unprepared and it has highlighted gaping holes in EU defence and response systems. And that, for Moscow, is the point. These incursions, echoing recent episodes in Poland and Romania, aren’t only a way to probe Western defences, but to weaken confidence in NATO’s article 5.
“When drones can fly into Danish airspace, disrupt critical infrastructure and leave without consequences, it sends a signal that the West can be probed without costs,” Niels Flemming Hansen, a Danish MEP and former chair of the defence committee in the Danish Parliament told The Parliament.
Unless Europe develops a short-term playbook to meet such provocations head-on, Russia will keep testing — and keep widening the cracks.
Russia’s hybrid probing
The drones over Denmark fit a familiar pattern of hybrid tactics: frequent jabs that Russia denies, engineered to rattle the public and sap confidence in collective defence.
The drones that forced a four-hour closure of Danish airspace on 22 September disrupted flights for 20,000 passengers and triggered a surge in anxious calls to the country’s Children's Hotline. The drones were unarmed, but nonetheless dealt a serious psychological blow.
Russia, predictably, has outright denied involvement, yet Danish media tracked a Russian warship, the Aleksandr Shabalin, loitering close to Danish waters for days — with its transponder switched off.
Defence Minister Troels Lund Poulsen, said the drones were launched locally and operated by professional actors — a hallmark of Moscow’s hybrid playbook, according to Mikkel Runge Olesen, a senior researcher on security policy at the Danish Institute for International Studies.
“I think it's only a limited number of actors that can actually pull something like this off, and then of those limited actors, who would want to? Who has an interest in doing it? Where's the motive? If you put those three things together, a lot of arrows are pointed at Russia,” he said.
Similar aerial probes have recently been seen in Estonia, Poland and Romania, whilst in the Baltic Sea, Russian “shadow fleet” vessels are suspected of damaged undersea infrastructure by dragging their anchors.
NATO’s credibility in the balance
To Joris Van Bladel, a senior associate fellow at the Egmont – Royal Institute for International Relations, these low-cost disruptions exploit not just Europe’s vulnerabilities but also American uncertainty.
“The reason why I think we see an escalation is that Mr. Trump and the Atlantic alliance is unpredictable at this very moment,” he told The Parliament. “With this kind of very cheap interference, it is for Russia possible to undermine NATO as an alliance.”
Trump’s shifting allegiances and recent whiplash on support for Ukraine has already unsettled allies. The US has been successful in forcing through 5% spending targets for Europe’s NATO members, but questions remain as to whether that is a call for a long-overdue European responsibility or merely Trump dumping the war in Europe’s lap.
What’s more certain is that every drone that crosses European skies without consequence chips away at the trust in a joint NATO response.
“The threats are evolving faster than our ability to respond,” Hansen warned. With NATO focused on guarding Baltic undersea cables after recent attacks, Europe’s skies have become the next weak spot — and, Hansen stressed, there is lack of a coordinated strategy.
EU's short-term defence gap
Here lies an often-overlooked danger: long-term projects are under way, but short-term measures vital to sustaining faith in the alliance are lagging.
Denmark’s lack of speed stands out to Hansen. “It's been three and a half years since we signed the national compromise to strengthen Denmark's armed forces, which many parties were a part of,” he said. “Billions has been allocated and there have been countless press conferences about rearming, and yet this happens.”
On Friday, EU leaders discussed a “drone wall” along its eastern frontier, a conversation to which Danish leaders were invited to join following the country’s challenges. The drone wall would leverage artificial intelligence, surveillance, air defence, and counter-drone technologies. But such projects take years.
“Speed is in essence here the way I see it and we need short-term solution alongside long-term infrastructure,” Hansen said. “We need to demonstrate that thresholds exist and crossing them has consequences.”
That means having immediate tools, from nets and jammers to cheaper counter-drones, ready to use. Otherwise, Europe is bound to face the same dilemma every time: $35,000 Iranian-designed, Russian-assembled Shahed drones against interceptors that costs around $400,000 each.
“In terms of finances, you don't have to shoot down a drone with an F-35 because there is an imbalance in price, but you have also to respond on the same level of the escalation level,” said Van Bladel.
Between war and weakness
On the bright side, Russia’s probing comes at a price. “By allowing Denmark to be aware of its weak points, there's also a cost for doing this for Russia as it is a gap that they will likely not be able to exploit in a year or two,” said Runge Olesen. But that’s only true if Europe acts, and history suggests Brussels is often slower to adapt than Moscow is to find new flaws.
For now, Europe is walking a tightrope: avoiding a full-blown confrontation with Russia without guaranteed US backing, while also keeping faith in its own unity. To Van Bladel, however, that balance should tip towards bolder action, since the risk of an outright Russian invasion is minimal.
That makes the battle as much about perception as reality. Hesitation signals weakness — unity and resolve signal deterrence. “We must demonstrate unity in these times when enemies seek to divide our continent and we must respond with solidarity and determination,” said Hansen. “We need to show force and to show Russia that if he wants to play with us, we're willing to play.”
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