A decade after Brexit, relations between the United Kingdom and the European Union are closer than they’ve been in years, with both sides seeking to reset ties through closer cooperation on trade, defense and mobility. Yet political turmoil in Westminster is once again threatening to complicate efforts to deepen the relationship.
On Monday, Prime Minister Keir Starmer — who’d pledged to bring Britain “back to the heart of Europe” — announced his resignation.
His likely successor, former Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham, could take office as soon as mid-July, and almost certainly before Parliament returns from its summer recess on September 1. The exact date will depend if Burnham secures the Labour party leadership unopposed.
The timing matters. Starmer was due to meet European Council President Antonio Costa and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen for a second EU-UK summit on July 22. Following his resignation, however, the Council decided to postpone.
The Brussels meeting was expected to deliver agreements on easing agri-food trade, expanding youth mobility programs and linking the EU and UK emissions trading systems.
Sandro Gozi (Renew Europe, FR), chair of the delegation to the EU-UK Parliamentary Partnership Assembly, said those objectives should remain achievable under the next British government. The key question, he argued, is whether the incoming prime minister will seek to alter the broader framework governing relations with Brussels.
“It depends on Andy Burnham and whether he wants to confirm Starmer’s red lines on the single market, the customs union, and freedom of movement, or go beyond them,” the liberal MEP said.
What’s at stake
The economic cost of Brexit to the United Kingdom is now estimated at around 5-6% of GDP. Behind those figures are businesses facing lower productivity growth and higher trade barriers than their counterparts inside the bloc, as well as citizens with declining living standards and the benefits of free movement curtailed.
For John Springford, associate fellow at the Centre for European Reform, the most worrying finding from recent studies is that Brexit's economic impact may not be a one-off shock.
"The economy has returned to its previous growth path, it's continuing to grow more slowly, and that's very concerning because it means that the loss may continue to grow," he said.
The second EU-UK summit offered an opportunity to claw back some of those losses. Yet even if all of Starmer's reset policies are implemented, Springford believes the economic gains would be relatively modest.
"Overall, we're looking at something which is about a 0.5% rise in GDP in the long run. So, compared to 5%, 6%, it's offsetting about a tenth of the cost of Brexit."
Public opinion reflects this economic reality. According to a poll by the European Council on Foreign Relations, 66% of Britons believe Brexit has had a negative impact on the country and worsened the issues they care most about, including the cost of living, economic growth, opportunities for young people, trade, and managing irregular migration.
The survey also found that 46% of respondents favor closer economic ties with the EU, a position that commands support even among Reform UK voters by a margin of 49% to 20%.
For that reason, the main challenge facing a second EU-UK summit is not necessarily delivering agreements on health standards, youth mobility, or emissions trading. Rather, it is how to define the long-term direction of the UK's relationship with the bloc.
"I don't think it makes any difference who it is [as UK prime minister]," said Francis Ghilès, a non-resident senior fellow at the Barcelona Centre for International Affairs. "The question is that nobody is articulating a clear policy" for EU-UK relations.
Ghilès argues that British politics remains deeply fragmented, and that much of the political right has yet to fully acknowledge the economic damage caused by Brexit.
How far can the reset go?
Despite growing public support for closer ties with Brussels, UK politics is unlikely to undergo a major shift before the next general election, expected in 2029.
"I suspect that in the run-up to that election, parties are all going to be competing over who's going to go further on reversing Brexit," Springford said.
Whether such shifting sentiment will lead to the UK rejoining the EU remains an open (and distant) question for now. But Springford believes the pressures pushing the UK toward closer integration with Europe are only bound to increase as dissatisfaction with the current arrangement deepens.
"Young people are overwhelmingly pro-European, so the only question is: to what extent does politics interrupt those kinds of structural trends that are driving the UK closer to the EU?"
Gozi sees a future UK return to the bloc as possible, though not inevitable. Before that could happen, he said, the EU would need to complete a broader process of institutional reform — not only with Britain in mind, but also in preparation for the possible accession of Ukraine and the Western Balkans.
"We should be sure that we get rid of the veto, that we have a more effective budget. There are several aspects of the institution that should be reformed before opening the European Union."
For now, Burnham's position offers some clues about how far he would be willing to go. The former mayor campaigned for Remain in 2016, and is generally regarded as even more pro-European than Starmer. At the same time, he has repeatedly said he does not want to reopen the Brexit debate or pursue membership of the single market or customs union.
Gozi said he would be surprised if Burnham chose not to continue — or even deepen — the partnership between London and Brussels. For now, however, rejoining is not an option for either side.
“Ten years is not a short time. We've had the Covid-19 crisis, the war in Ukraine and the accession of the Western Balkan countries and Ukraine...” Gozi said. “So this is certainly more relevant to the British debate than the European one.”
In any case, the decision will ultimately rest with British voters and politicians.
"The expectations of the public opinion are to go toward a closer relationship between the UK and EU, but it is up to him [Burnham] to decide for his country.”
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