The European Commission on Wednesday adopted its annual Enlargement Package, which takes stock of the progress and problems on the path to EU enlargement.
Several countries are candidates to join the bloc. Though Russia’s war in Ukraine has injected the enlargement question with fresh energy, progress remains slow. In a news release attached to the report, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said accession “will remain a top priority of the new Commission.”
Of the ten countries on the list, five of them – Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia – are in the Western Balkans. Georgia and Moldova share a more complicated path, with each contending with pro-Russian breakaway regions in their borders. Ukraine, meanwhile, is actively fighting to wrestle its land back from Russian occupation.
Turkey is, technically speaking, also a candidate country, but negotiations have been frozen for years with little prospect of warming up anytime soon. Kosovo makes the list, as well, but not all EU member states recognize its status as a state.
Each would-be member state faces hurdles to joining the European club. Georgia's may be the highest, given a recent rollback of democratic rights and tilt towards Russian interests that led to the EU freezing accession talks just six months after opening the door to them.
Ukraine and Moldova, on the other hand, kicked off those negotiations in June. At the time, outgoing European Council President Charles Michel praised them for “impressive commitment to reform and alignment with European values.”
Having so many countries on deck to join the EU comes at the end of a period widely described as enlargement fatigue.
“When you absorb 13 new members over the course of ten years, it makes sense that you need some time to process it,” Berta López Domènech, a policy analyst at the European Policy Centre in Brussels, told The Parliament earlier this year. “If you look at Bulgaria and Luxembourg, for instance, there is still a massive socioeconomic gap.”
Accession comes after a long process and requires a unanimous vote among the bloc’s existing leaders in the European Council. That process has been lagging so far, with some candidate countries in the queue for more than a decade.
Letting in at least one, Domènech said, could send a positive sign to others.
“This kind of success story would show the other candidates that the EU is serious about this, which again would give a tool to reformist civil society actors to push their respective elites and governments,” she said.
The geopolitical landscape has shifted dramatically in this time, with Russian influence reaching a point that “these countries have an alternative now,” Domènech added, pointing to a decline in pro-EU sentiment in places like Serbia and North Macedonia.
Albania
Albania submitted its application for membership in 2009, achieving candidate status in 2014. The Commission’s latest progress report highlighted that there is still a lot to improve when it comes to more stable political institutions, rule of law, and respect for human rights. Nonetheless, it has made some progress in negotiations.
In a news conference during a visit this month to Tirana, the Albanian capital, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen praised the candidate hopeful for “years of hard work” that she said is "paying off.”
Albania has a target date of 2027 to complete the accession process.
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Von der Leyen gave the country her blessing to receive candidate status in December 2022. Bosnia and Herzegovina has passed several laws on conflicts of interest, anti-money laundering and countering terrorist financing, which are prerequisites for accession.
Yet the country still struggles with organised crime and corruption. It also contends with separatist sentiment, such as in the ethnically Serbian Republika Srpska region, which accounts for about a third of the country’s population.
In its latest report, the Commission has called on the country to push forward on reforms, especially regarding the judiciary and the electoral system. In parallel, the EU’s executive is preparing a negotiating framework.
Georgia
Georgia is the only candidate that does not share a border with the EU. It has been partially occupied by Russian troops since 2008, but that is not the only obstacle to joining the EU. Despite polls that suggest strong public support for aligning with the EU, Georgia's government has been steadily pushing the country into Russia's orbit.
The EU granted candidate status at the end of 2023, only to put it on ice over the summer following Georgia's passage of a foreign agents bill, which sparked protests at home and criticism abroad. The law affects NGOs and some media that receive external funding, which democracy advocates have said clamps down on civil society and free media.
The ruling Georgian Dream party, which originally pushed for EU membership but has leaned more towards Russia recently, claimed 54% of the vote in parliamentary elections this month. The opposition and international observers have expressed doubts about the fairness of the election.
As a result, the EU has called on Georgia to reverse anti-democratic laws and return to the reforms necessary to align it with the EU.
Montenegro
A NATO member and the smallest of the Balkan countries, Montenegro applied for EU membership in 2008 and officially started the accession process in June 2012. After complaints by the Commission about “political volatility [and] government instability and tensions,” the tide seems to have turned in favour of accession following the election of a new government last year.
Prime Minister Milojko Spajić of the “Europe Now” movement has pledged to accelerate reforms and unblock the accession process. The 36-year-old former Goldman Sachs banker has declared joining the EU a foreign policy priority, aiming to gain membership as early as 2028.
In June, Montenegro met the interim benchmarks for the rule of law. The Enlargement Package report states that more progress is still needed when it comes to the rule of law.
Moldova
A battleground of influence between the EU and Russia, Moldova took a clear turn towards the EU when it applied for membership in March 2022, in response to Russia's full-scale invasion of its neighbour, Ukraine. The country's president, Maia Sandu, is pro-EU but contends with a Russian-leaning enclave, Transnistria, that houses 1,500 Russian troops. Nonetheless, the EU started accession talks with Moldova on 25 June.
In a recent referendum, 50.4% of Moldovans voted in favour of joining the EU. That was far lower than expected, which the government said was due to Russian interference. The Commission has said it aims to push ahead with negotiations in 2025.
North Macedonia
North Macedonia achieved candidate status in 2005, but accession negotiations didn’t begin until March 2020. It is the longest gap in EU history.
Part of the delay was due to member state demands. Greece insisted that the country change its name from Macedonia. That happened in 2019. Bulgaria also raised issues over language and ethnic classifications, which remain unaddressed.
In its report, the Commission has called on North Macedonia to keep reforming its judiciary and fighting corruption.
Serbia
Nevertheless, Serbia applied for EU membership in 2009 and has been a candidate since 2012. Irregularities during the country’s elections in December 2023 set up another roadblock. The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe mission uncovered manipulation and voter fraud.
President Aleksandar Vučić’s closeness to Russia and his increasing anti-EU rhetoric present another problem. A poll by Demostat from June 2023 suggests that only 33% of Serbians want to join the EU. That is the lowest approval rating in the region.
While the country is reforming the judiciary, Serbia still hasn't aligned its foreign policy with the EU, especially regarding Russia. For Serbia to move forward with membership talks, the Commission said it needs to improve rule of law and normalise relations with Kosovo, which broke away from the country in 2008 after protracted conflict.
Turkey
The EU has flirted with membership for Turkey since 1999, but progress has been stalled for years. In its latest annual Enlargement Package, the Commission reiterated that Turkey needs to address fundamental rights and the rule of law.
Despite those concerns, Turkey remains a "key partner” of the EU, particularly on migration. The bloc has given Turkey €9 billion to keep millions of people, many of whom have fled conflict and persecution, from trying to enter the EU.
Ukraine
Ukraine applied for EU membership just four days after Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022. It received candidate status in June of that year, and in December 2023 EU leaders agreed to open accession negotiations. It marks the first time that a country at war has asked to join the EU.
Despite progress on fundamental EU reforms, the Commission is waiting for Ukraine to do more against corruption and organised crime as well as further protect fundamental rights. If the war-torn country can meet those conditions, the Commission will open the first chapter of negotiations in 2025.
This article has been updated to reflect the European Commission’s 2024 Enlargement Package, which was released on 30 October.