Almost five years have passed since the disputed 2020 presidential election in Belarus, when President Alexander Lukashenko intensified his authoritarian grip on the country. After what the European Union considers a rigged vote, state security forces cracked down on protesters challenging the result, as well as on civil society members, opposition parties and journalists covering the aftermath of the election.
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya’s husband, Sergei Tikhanovsky, was among the disappeared after running for the presidency. He was released on Saturday, 21 June, after more than five years in prison. Before his release, Tsikhanouskaya had not been able to speak to him for two years.
She has nevertheless fought on from exile in Lithuania, coordinating the democratic opposition through the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus — a self-declared interim government. From there, she has witnessed her country descend into a full-fledged dictatorship, supporting Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and experiencing deteriorating relations with the European Union, which she considers the true home of her people.
The uncertainty generated by the Trump administration's stance on transatlantic relations and the resolution of the war in Ukraine, combined with the escalation of the crisis in the Middle East, threatens to have long-term consequences for Belarus's hopes of rejoining the European family of democracies.
In a Q&A with The Parliament, Tsikhanouskaya discussed the impact of current geopolitical tensions on Lukashenko’s regime, the role of Bealrusian opposition in peace negotiations in Ukraine, and the European prospects for a future democratic Belarus.
This interview was conducted before Tikhanovsky’s release. It has been edited for clarity and length.
Does the escalating conflict in the Middle East have an impact on Belarus?
Yes. Iran is aiding Russia in its war against Ukraine, while Lukashenko — as [Russian President Vladimir] Putin's closest ally — is pretending to be a friend of Iran.
Israel has the right to defend itself if it perceives a threat, but the situation in the Middle East is deeply painful. We are seeing more and more conflicts being resolved through war rather than diplomacy.
We also fear losing the attention of our democratic partners in Europe, despite the strategic importance of Belarus for EU security. I sense a certain fatigue among Western countries regarding Belarus.
It is even more regrettable that this is also happening with Ukraine. The near-daily bombings of Kyiv no longer generate a strong media response.
We have worked to establish relationships within the European Union, to formalise our cooperation and ensure that Belarus remains on the agenda. Our goal is to raise awareness among Europeans about why Belarus is vital to the peace and security architecture of Europe. Without Belarus, there can be no lasting peace in the region.
What would a sustainable peace in the region look like?
For Belarusians, Ukrainians and Europeans alike, it is essential to achieve a lasting peace, not a ceasefire that Putin will simply use to regroup before continuing his aggression. His target is not only Ukraine: He will go further, towards Western countries.
Belarus should not be overlooked or treated as a separate case, to be dealt with then Ukraine is at peace. Representatives of the Belarusian democratic forces should be at the negotiating table.
European leaders must also be at this table, representing our voice and making it clear that Belarus is part of the solution — that a free and democratic Belarus is a crucial piece in this security puzzle. We do not want to be given to Putin as a consolation prize.
What do you think of President Donald Trump's approach to peace negotiations?
I think that both Putin and Lukashenko have been waiting for this US administration to come, because from the beginning it was evident that US policy would change. We see that the policy of Trump's administration is more transactional and pragmatic, and they want to end this war. However, there is a difference between closing the issue and solving the problem.
We rely on the united position of the transatlantic community. We welcome the US efforts to start negotiations but they cannot take place without Europeans, because this is a security issue for the whole continent. And Europe must become strong enough not to wait for an invitation to the negotiating table, but to invite itself.
What message would you like to send to Western leaders about making deals with Russia?
Putin and Lukashenko do not want peace. The war against Ukraine fuels their regimes and justifies their terror. They seek submission from countries like Belarus, Georgia, and Moldova to restore the old ‘family’ of the Soviet Union, disregarding the people's desire to live in a democratic world.
They will not stop until they are stopped. Do not give them time to regroup, and do not make any deals with Russia that circumvent the interests of Ukrainians and Belarusians.
Is there still a possibility of a European future for Belarus?
I am absolutely sure that Belarus will sooner or later become part of the European Union, but our task now is to return to the broader European family of nations, because coalitions are essential in supporting one another. We want Belarus to be recognised as part of Europe in people's minds, because for too long we have been overshadowed by Russia.
We exist in a grey zone — almost no one perceives us as a European nation. But it is only the last 200 years that we have been under Russian influence. Throughout our history, we were part of Europe, and we want to return to our roots. Belarusians are European, and we fully share EU values, but we were not fortunate enough to have the chance to elect the right leader.
We are already preparing for a transition, drafting new laws and reforms to quickly transform Belarus into a democratic European country. Right now, the goal of Belarusians is to dismantle the regime, but we will not be able to achieve this without allies.
In this regard, what do you expect from the EU institutions?
We want the EU's stance to remain firm, continuing efforts to weaken Lukashenko's regime through political and economic pressure. At the same time, we urge the EU to increase its support for Belarusian democratic forces, civil society, and independent media: These are crucial tools in countering Lukashenko's propaganda.
After the withdrawal of funds from USAID, we are calling on Europeans to help fill this gap. This is a crucial moment in our history, and the democratic forces of Belarus must be strong enough to stand against the regime.
What is the current human rights situation in Belarus?
At the moment, we know of at least 1,200 political prisoners, but the real number is much higher because not all names are known. Many people detained in politically motivated cases do not want to be recognised as political prisoners because, as soon as they are, their relatives are targeted by the KGB and their properties are confiscated. Among these prisoners, at least eight are victims of enforced disappearance, including [until last week] my husband.
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