Moldova’s parliamentary elections are about more than who governs a small country on Europe’s edge: they will shape the fate of their EU ambitions and, by extension, European security.
On 28 September, Moldovans face a stark choice between a pro-Russian camp waging an all-out disinformation campaign and a pro-EU camp promising to bring Moldova into the Union. Wedged between Russia and the EU, the 3 million-strong country may be small, but its strategic importance to both Russia and the EU is immense.
Incumbent President Maia Sandu’s centre-right pro-EU Action and Solidarity Party and the pro-Moscow Patriotic Electoral Bloc are running neck and neck in the polls. Addressing the European Parliament last week, Sandu warned that “Moldova won’t survive Putin’s threats unless it joins the EU.”
She also told MEPs in Strasbourg that Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to “capture Moldova through the ballot box, to use us against Ukraine, and to turn us into a launchpad for hybrid attacks on the European Union.”
The Kremlin, meanwhile, continues to probe Europe’s vulnerabilities, most recently with Russian drones testing NATO airspace in Poland. A pro-Russian victory in Moldova would give Russia a new foothold on the EU’s eastern border, a risk the Union cannot take.
The war for Moldova’s future is fought online
Much like in last year’s referendum on EU membership, in which Moldova narrowly voted for a commitment to join the EU, Russia is trying to sway the vote through aggressive disinformation campaigns and buying votes.
A recent investigation by the Moldavian news outlet Ziarul de Gardă uncovered a vast pro-Russian propaganda network on social media, coordinated from Moscow and backed by fugitive Moldovan oligarch Ilan Șor. Hundreds of fake TikTok and Facebook accounts have been pushing anti-Sandu and anti-EU messages, a tactic echoing those used during last year’s Romanian presidential election.
Șor, who fled Moscow after being accused of stealing more than $1 billion — 12.5% of Moldova’s GDP — from the country’s biggest banks, has gone further: promising to pay protesters $3,000 a month to join anti-government demonstrations and launching a new cryptocurrency that enabled $9.3 billion in cross-border payments in just four months, helping the Kremlin circumvent Western sanctions.
Flaunting his Kremlin credentials, Şor recently appeared alongside Russian President Vladimir Putin at a press conference, where he detailed business dealings through a Russian bank that authorities in Chişinău suspect is funnelling money to buy votes in the upcoming election. Anticorruption investigators recently seized €1 million believed to be linked to Șor, which they said was intended to be used to bribe voters in next week’s election.
The 28 September vote is a chance to modernise Moldova
EU membership would unlock much needed economic development to Moldova and leverage against Russian influence. It would signal to investors that Moldova is ready for business and serious about reform, while injecting capital into an economy still heavily reliant on agriculture.
Agriculture employs a quarter of the country’s workforce and generates 12% of its GDP. The sector already has strong ties to Europe: Moldova is the bloc’s third-largest wheat supplier and accession would open the door to the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) funds to modernise farms and align standards with European partners.
Modernising agriculture would just be the start. Moldova’s crumbling infrastructure and particularly its dangerous road network — one of the deadliest in Europe — urgently needs investment. EU funding could help overhaul these systems, boosting productivity and connectivity across the economy.
EU membership could also ease Moldova’s demographic crisis. Economic hardships and a sluggish job market have translated into the country shedding one-third of its population since 1989. A stronger economy and new job opportunities under EU membership could help slow or even reverse that decline, just as neighbouring Romania has seen fewer citizens planning to emigrate since joining the bloc.
EU security on the line
A defeat for Moldova’s pro-EU camp would threaten EU security beyond hybrid attacks from Russia. Its border with Romania is already a hotspot for tobacco smugglers, and with rising tobacco taxes in eastern member states, particularly Romania, the lure to move cheaper, more harmful products is only growing. On top of the health risks, illicit cigarette trade already costs Romania €500 million annually according to data from StopContrabanda.ro.
The country has been a strong supporter of Ukraine, much to the ire of Russia. Despite being a small nation, it has housed one of the largest numbers of Ukrainian refugees per capita, for which it has been receiving support through the European Commission financial assistance programme.
The EU cannot afford to sit on the sidelines. Supporting Moldova now means defending Europe’s future. That could mean expanding cybersecurity support, accelerating financial aid for critical sectors, and applying targeted sanctions on those enabling Russian interference ahead of the 28 September vote.
The outcome is not just about Moldova — it is a battle for sovereignty and security, and both Russia and the EU know it.
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