As American and Israeli bombs pound Iranian targets and its proxies in the Middle East, now in the campaign’s sixth day, Europe’s much-vaunted unity is once again looking thin.
It’s been roughly a month since U.S. President Donald Trump stood on the stage at the World Economic Forum's annual summit in Davos, Switzerland, and announced he would abandon his plan for a military takeover of Greenland. European leaders were quick to hail the moment as proof of Europe’s resolve and collective strength. But as we wrote at the time, it wasn’t so much unity that saved the day; it was luck.
This week has proved the point. The EU’s response to Trump’s illegal strikes on Iran has been an ungainly blend of caution, platitudes and half-hearted support.
The bloc’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, has called for restraint and respect for international law. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has floated support for regime change. Meanwhile, President Emmanuel Macron France has dispatched France’s lone aircraft carrier to the region while acknowledging the campaign itself is “outside international law.” German Chancellor Freidrich Mertz has struck the opposite tone, declaring ahead of a Washington visit this week that now is not the time to lecture allies on legalities.
Indeed, the easiest time to champion a rules-based order is when everyone agrees and nothing is truly at stake. Were that the case today, the EU might have rallied behind the position of Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, who has denounced the Iranian regime but refused U.S. requests to use Spanish military bases for attacks on Iran, warning the strikes will produce a more “uncertain and hostile international order.”
No one should mourn Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, killed in strikes on Feb. 28 after presiding over decades of repression. But intentions matter, and Washington seems to have little idea what comes next.
Before the military campaign began, the Trump administration cut funding for Iranian human-rights monitoring groups and shut down media projects that could have strengthened a democratic opposition. Earlier this week, Trump noted that he had shortlisted candidates to lead a post-Khamenei Iran — only for the bombing campaign to kill them. "It’s not going to be anybody that we were thinking of,” he said, “because they are all dead.”
The administration may well be satisfied with knee-capping Theran’s military capabilities, installing a U.S. friendly figure — regardless of how Iranians are governed — and boosting energy exports along the way.
As The Parliament's Paula Soler wrote this week, the EU has limited room for maneuver and may, in the short-term, be able to do little more than cushion the economic fallout and protect its citizens in the region.
But the bloc’s response to this war is about more than crisis management. In seeking to appease Washington, it would be helping to build a world in which it’s destined to steadily grow more powerless.
What we're writing
Paula Soler: Europe on the sidelines as Iran war escalates
Divided messaging, limited leverage and strained diplomatic channels have left the European Union struggling to respond decisively to the escalating conflict in Iran.
Daniel Williams (Essay): Trump's new Middle East war underlines Washington's selective memory
The first Gulf War offers key lessons for the U.S. military campaign in Iran, Williams argues.
Federica Di Sario: Middle East escalation threatens Europe’s reindustrialization
American-Israeli strikes on Iran are roiling global energy markets, complicating Europe’s push to regain competitiveness.
Paula Soler: Why Europe is slow to leverage Ukraine’s war experience
As member states rush to rearm, Ukraine’s battlefield-forged defense industry offers hard-won lessons and cutting-edge capabilities the bloc has yet to fully harness.
Judith Arnal (Op-ed): To boost competitiveness, Europe needs a new approach to company mergers
The review of the EU’s M&A guidelines signals a shift away from risk aversion, and from the presumption that mergers are more likely to harm competition than strengthen it, Arnal contends.
What we're reading
The Atlantic: ‘The most Dangerous man in the world’
Mojtaba Khamenei, a candidate to succeed his father as Iran’s Supreme Leader, is no reformer.
Economist: How the Danes and Swedes handle populism
Denmark’s Mette Frederiksen calls an election to take on the hard right again.
Financial Times: Qatar warns war will force Gulf to stop energy exports within weeks
The gas producer says it will take ‘weeks to months’ to restore deliveries after Iranian drone strike.
The New York Times: As Trump out-Putins Putin, Russia’s global influence erodes
The conflict in Iran may give Moscow a short-term boost economically and in Ukraine. But it has also shown the limits of Russia’s partnerships.
What we're following
As Washington tightens sanctions to squeeze Cuba’s economy, Trump suggested regime change in Havana could come after the war in Iran. The U.S. president said on Thursday that negotiations with the communist government may begin in a matter of weeks, saying "they want to make a deal so badly."
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