After a three-day telegram from spring, Brussels is set to slip back into its habitual gloom this weekend. From a political vantage point, the mood fits. This week marks the grim fourth anniversary of Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine.
Last month, the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies reported that Russia has seized 12% of Ukraine since the invasion began. Only around 1.5% of that has been added in the last two years of grinding offensives. The cost: up to 325,000 Russian lives as of December 2025.
Another report, published by the United Nations in January, estimated that more than 15,000 Ukrainian civilians have been killed over four years, with 2025 the deadliest yet.
As for the EU’s role, its efforts to assist Kyiv took a hit this week as a €90 billion loan — unanimously agreed in December — was blocked by Hungary. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán accused Ukraine of orchestrating an “oil blockade" after a key pipeline was damaged in a January drone attack widely attributed to Russia. Orbán also vetoed the EU’s already-delayed 20th sanctions package on Moscow.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, showing up empty-handed in Kyiv on the Feb. 24 anniversary, pledged the €90 billion lifeline will go through “one way or the other,” while European Council President Antonio Cósta sent a letter urging the Hungarian leader to fall in line.
Neither gesture is likely to sway Orbán, who is up for reelection in April, or Slovakia’s Robert Fico — another customer of Russian oil — who has threatened to halt emergency electricity supplies to Kyiv until the pipeline is reopened, even as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenzky has said repairs are underway.
The paralysis in Brussels comes a week after peace talks in Geneva collapsed. The Russian delegation walked out after just two hours of discussions on the second day, prompting Zelensky to accuse Moscow of stalling.
Something Zelensky didn’t say, but is equally true, is that the EU is playing for time, too. Brussels’ bet is that sanctions, coupled with funds and calibrated arms deliveries to Ukraine, will eventually exhaust Russia.
That may happen. The CSIS report depicts a country in decline: sluggish growth, high inflation, labor shortages, and a budget increasingly consumed by the war machine. Ukraine, meanwhile, has grown more adept at striking Russia’s energy infrastructure.
But there’s an asymmetry in Europe’s wager. If Moscow muddles through — if its economy absorbs the shock, if it deepens energy ties eastward and immunizes itself against future sanctions — then what? A mutilated peace brokered by Washington, freezing the conflict on terms favorable to the Kremlin, would not end the war. It would merely set the stage for a wider one.
The EU, at least in theory, knows this. For four years, its leaders have said Ukraine is fighting for all of Europe, that Putin’s ambitions extend far beyond the Donbas, beyond Ukraine itself. Yet fast-tracked EU membership for Ukraine still appears distant, and boots on the ground has never been seriously considered.
For all the talk of “geopolitical awakening” and “strategic autonomy,” the EU still behaves like a bloc that assumes someone else will ultimately guarantee its security.
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Look out for a news analysis from our own Federica Di Sario next week.
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