After two days of deadlocked negotiations, European capitals and lawmakers on Thursday kicked the question of new migrant deportation rules down the road to June 1.
The talks ground to a halt over timing: the European Council wants a two-year delay for most of the package, while the European Parliament is pushing for immediate implementation. But most of the broader regulatory wrinkles now appear ironed out, making a deal before the rollout of the EU’s wider asylum and migration pact next month likely.
The most controversial part of the new, tougher rules are the so-called “return hubs” — offshore detention centers in non-EU countries. Approved by Parliament in March with support from center and right-wing parties, the proposal would allow rejected asylum seekers to be transferred, through bilateral agreements, to holding facilities in countries with which they have no prior connection, where they could await deportation for up to two years.
While supporters hail return hubs as an outside-the-box response to persistently low deportation rates, critics argue the policy may also sit outside the bounds of international law, with some drawing comparisons to the hardline tactics of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement and the Trump administration’s deals with countries like El Salvador to receive deported migrants.
But there is another, equally troubling, American parallel. Just like Trump’s aggressive deportation crusade has proved expensive, deeply unpopular and less effective than advertised, the EU’s own cost-benefit analysis is unlikely to add up.
Member states would remain responsible for the welfare and legal rights of migrants held offshore. That means EU countries would maintain their domestic migrant infrastructure while simultaneously financing transport, staffing, security and human-rights safeguards abroad. To give an idea, the price tag for Italy’s failed 2023 attempt at outsourcing migrant processing to Albania was an estimated €600 million over five years.
Compounding the high moral and financial cost, the EU should expect legal challenges, relentless scrutiny from human rights organizations and, as my colleague Margherita Dalla Vecchia has noted, the risk of host countries exploiting Europe’s dependence for political or financial gain.
That Europe needs a more coordinated and effective migrant system is quite clear. But previous efforts to externalize migration control have repeatedly ended in failure, controversy or both. Nor is there meaningful evidence that the threat of offshore detention deters people fleeing war, poverty or instability from attempting the journey to Europe.
While return hubs have been sold as the missing piece of the EU’s migration policy, their adoption is more likely to prove that the bloc is still searching for one.
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