Next week, NATO allies will launch what might best be described as an operation to charm U.S. President Donald Trump, smooth over tensions with some European partners following the war in Iran, and prevent Trump from once again threatening to walk away from the alliance.
During the two-day summit in Ankara on July 7-8, the Turkish capital will become the staging ground for that effort. The strategy has three parts: showcasing record defense spending, unveiling tens of billions of dollars in new transatlantic defense contracts, and formalizing NATO's transformation into a more European alliance.
"Burden shifting, interestingly, will be mentioned in the NATO Summit declaration for the first time," Oana Lungescu, a member of the RUSI Europe Advisory Board, said during an event previewing the Ankara summit. “It shows the direction of travel towards what people in Washington like to call NATO 3.0.”
Since last year's summit in The Hague, where allies pledged to spend 5% of GDP on defense by 2035, Washington has repeatedly threatened to disengage from the alliance, criticized allies that didn't support its military operation against Iran, announced plans to reduce its military presence in Europe, and most recently signaled it will scale back its role in any future NATO crisis.
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte says European allies have already replaced most of those U.S. capabilities being withdrawn, though some remain uniquely American. Where no substitute exists, Europe will have to replace it with a similar capacity or develop one — and that will take time.
Still, Lungescu, who served as NATO's spokesperson from 2010 to 2023, said officials at the alliance's headquarters in Brussels are cautiously optimistic.
The reason? Rutte.
The Dutch secretary-general has earned a reputation as "Trump whisperer" and appears determined to ensure Washington leaves Ankara claiming the summit as a political victory.
As Rutte recently pointed out, European NATO allies and Canada increased defense spending by more than $90 billion last year alone — nearly a 20% in a single year.
For the first time, Rutte will also report on allies' efforts to meet the 1.5% spending target beyond core defense investments, including military mobility and civilian resilience.
Turkey's role as a host also plays into the charm offensive. It has NATO's second-largest military, one of the alliance's fastest-growing defense industries, and is led by a president who has cultivated close ties with Trump.
The underlying message, however, will remain unchanged: Europe may finally be spending more, but it is still not producing enough. Much to the dismay of some European allies, the answer, NATO argues, is deeper transatlantic industrial cooperation.
As Rutte told defense ministers in Brussels last month, neither Europe nor the U.S. can do it alone.
For now, Europe has little choice but to stay on that course while strengthening its own defense industrial base, turning investment into real military capabilities, and sustaining military support for Ukraine in the face Russian aggression.
If everything goes according to plan, Ankara could mark NATO's shift from dependency to a genuine partnership. But if Trump once again turns the summit into a confrontation over Iran, or if the conflict escalates further, the alliance will fail another stress test of unity and emerge weaker in the face of its adversaries.
One thing, however, is certain: the meeting won't be boring.
I'll be reporting from Ankara throughout the summit, covering key decisions, the political maneuvering behind them, and what they mean for the alliance's future.
Stay tuned.
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