As a fragile ceasefire in the Middle East has done little to restore hopes of a swift return to lower energy prices and pandemic-style emergency measures remain on the table, climate advocates are struggling to contain their frustration.
They argue the crisis might have been far less severe had policymakers reduced Europe’s reliance on highly volatile fossil fuels imports sooner.
Since the U.S. and Israel launched a war on Iran on Feb. 28, effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz — a vital artery for roughly one-fifth of the world's oil supply — energy markets have surged.
Oil prices have climbed by as much as 60% and European gas prices by 70%, adding an extra €22 billion to the EU’s monthly fossil fuel import bill, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Tuesday. After peace talks failed on April 11, Washington announced a naval blockade of Irans ports, aiming to cut off Iran’s oil exports. So far, however, it has failed to force Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
While gas prices remain way below the peaks seen during the 2022 energy crisis that followed Russia's invasion of Ukraine, warnings are mounting. International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol has cautioned that the Iran conflict could become the most significant challenge ever faced by global energy markets.
To curb energy demand and avoid shortages, the Commission in late March suggested European capitals should consider measures like more remote working and lower driving speeds. While few dispute these measures are needed, some climate campaigners struggle to reconcile these appeals with the EU executive's recent policy record.
“How credible is it for the EU Commission to urge Europeans to cut energy consumption after spending months weakening climate obligations, backing new gas imports, and dismantling the very regulatory architecture designed to reduce fossil fuel dependency?” Alberto Alemanno, a professor of EU law at the HEC Paris Business School, posted on LinkedIn in early April.
Over the past few months, Brussels has weakened key legislation aimed at phasing out the sale of internal combustion engine vehicles by 2035 while championing a broader deregulation drive — all intended to help ailing industries like the auto sector compete with rivals in China and the U.S.
“A Middle East crisis spiked energy prices … and suddenly renewables are strategic again,” said Alemanno on LinkedIn, adding that “emergency appeals to work from home and fly less don’t substitute for structural policy.”
Never waste a good (energy) crisis
Europe could have saved billions in taxpayer money by more aggressively cutting gas dependence after the 2022 energy crunch triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, analysts said.
To Ana Maria Jaller-Makarewicz, a senior energy analyst with the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, EU members had two options at the time: slash fossil fuel consumption altogether — not just from Russia — or diversify gas supplies away from Moscow and increase LNG imports, particularly from the U.S. European governments largely chose the latter.
“The situation now is completely different because we realize that we cannot increase LNG imports anymore,” explained Jaller-Makarewicz, referring to high costs and the risk of trading dependence on Moscow for reliance on an increasingly erratic Washington.
According to the IEEFA’s EU gas flow tracker, EU countries reduced their gas consumption by 20% between 2021 and 2024, though this trend partially reversed in 2025.
Neil Makaroff, a director at climate think tank Strategic Perspectives, pointed to a “political zigzag" beginning in late 2023 as the main culprit behind the loss of momentum toward electrification.
“It was clear already in 2022 that being more resilient meant to reduce imported oil and gas … but after the crisis we started again as before,” Makaroff said, noting that while renewables have continued growing on their own, the deployment of heat pumps and electric vehicles has stalled amid waning government support.
For Jaller-Makarewicz, the conclusion is clear: “Europe needs to be reminded all the time of the risk of importing gas and energy.”
Energy subsidies to the rescue?
Frustration is also building over how the EU should shield its most vulnerable citizens from feeling the burn.
Several capitals have rolled out a raft of measures that energy experts warn could leave governments effectively paying twice for fossil fuels — through direct subsidies and by absorbing external costs such as air pollution and environmental damage — while doing little to actually support those most in need.
According to a recent analysis by the Paris-based Jacques Delors Institute, 22 of the 27 EU members have adopted over 120 support measures at a collective cost of over €9 billion.
For instance, Italy — heavily reliant on Qatari gas — has spent over €400 million to cut excise duties on petrol and diesel and is now lobbying Brussels to relax state aid rules.
However, rushing into subsidies when the conflict’s duration is unclear is a “dangerous pathway,” warned Phuc-Vinh Nguyen, the head of the energy centre at the Jacques Delors Institute and one of the authors of the study.
“If you already have in place measures that were cushioning the price signal when the price was not that high, well, citizens expect that you would strengthen that help [if the crisis gets worse].”
While proces have surged, oil cargoes that cleared the Strait of Hormuz before the war began have actually softened the shock somewhat. But analysts warn prices could rise further if the Iran ceasefire breaks down.
Limited fiscal capacity will also constrain countries. During the last crisis, EU members earmarked nearly €800 billion — equivalent to 2.2% of the bloc’s GDP between 2022 and 2024 — to support households and businesses. That option isn’t on the menu today, as even some of the bloc’s wealthiest nations face significantly higher deficits than they did four years ago.
“Frankly speaking, sometimes I actually wonder if something has been learned from the past crisis,” Nguyen said.
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