At its current pace, the European Union won't achieve its 2040 smoke-free goal until 2100. With 24% of EU adults still smoking – a decline of barely 1% since 2020 – Europe faces a public health catastrophe measured in millions of preventable deaths. Yet within this tough reality lies a tale of two approaches: one clinging to failed methods, another embracing innovation.
Let's face it, traditional smoking control measures are not enough. Countries relying exclusively on somewhat coercive interventions – such as higher taxes, smoking bans, and plain packaging – are watching their progress stagnate. But three EU nations seem to have cracked the code, as documented in a new analysis by We Are Innovation examining Europe's divergent paths to smoke-free status.
Sweden is about to become Europe's first smoke-free nation, with current smoking rates of 5.4%. The Swedish Experience combines traditional measures with policies that make innovative nicotine products (INPs) – snus, nicotine pouches, heated tobacco, and vaping—accessible, acceptable, and affordable. The results speak for themselves: Sweden reports 36% fewer lung cancer deaths than the EU average.
Czechia has achieved the fastest smoking decline in Europe, dropping seven percentage points in three years through coordinated "harm reduction" policies across government ministries. Their systematic approach treats nicotine products based on their relative risk, creating economic ladders away from cigarettes through differentiated taxation and regulation.
“Since 2020 Greece has cut smoking by six percentage points, liberating 600,000 citizens from cigarettes”
Perhaps most remarkably, Greece has finally broken through after fifteen years of stagnation. Once trapped at 42% smoking prevalence despite increasingly restrictive policies, Greece reversed course in 2020. By legalizing nicotine pouches, establishing risk-proportionate taxation, and allowing manufacturers to communicate relative risk information, Greece cut smoking by six percentage points, liberating 600,000 citizens from cigarettes.
These success stories share common elements that challenge prevailing orthodoxies. They treat nicotine products based on their risk relative to cigarettes rather than applying blanket prohibitions. They use smart regulation and taxation to create economic incentives for smokers to switch to safer alternatives.
The global evidence extends far beyond Europe's borders. The United Kingdom cut smoking from 16.4% to 10.4% after including vaping in its smoking control strategy. Japan achieved a staggering 52% decline in cigarette sales through consumer adoption of heated tobacco products. New Zealand is making confident progress toward smoke-free status by 2025 through similar comprehensive approaches.
Critics argue that embracing innovative nicotine products somehow undermines public health goals. The evidence suggests otherwise. These alternatives provide off-ramps from cigarettes for the millions of Europeans who have struggled to quit through traditional methods alone. When smokers are offered accessible, acceptable, and affordable alternatives with dramatically lower health risks, many make the switch.
The choice facing Europe is binary. Continue treating all nicotine products equally while clinging exclusively to traditional interventions, and the smoke-free goal will remain distant – achievable only beyond 2100. Or embrace the comprehensive approach that Sweden, Czechia, and Greece have proven effective, making meaningful progress possible within this decade.
Federico N. Fernández is CEO of We Are Innovation, a global network of 50 think tanks and NGOs, dedicated to driving change and championing innovative solutions worldwide. His expertise and passion for innovation have earned him recognition from publications such as The Economist, El País, Folha de São Paulo, and Newsweek.
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