US President Donald Trump has said he is ready to impose “major sanctions” on Moscow if all NATO member states agree to stop buying Russian oil, a move that puts the spotlight on the EU’s most reluctant members, Hungary and Slovakia.
While Washington’s demand likely carries ulterior motives — above all, boosting US energy exports — it could still work to the bloc’s advantage by forcing Budapest and Bratislava to finally cut their reliance on Russian crude.
“They're in this pincer movement in which they will be forced to choose sooner or later,” Eamon Drumm, a research analyst at the German Marshall Fund (GMF), told The Parliament.
Hungary has increased its dependence on Russian oil from 61% before the invasion to 86% in 2024, while Slovakia remains almost entirely reliant, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA).
Both governments have dragged their feet on many of the EU sanctions since the war in Ukraine began in 2022: Orbán declared in August that Russia had “won” the conflict, while Fico has met Putin twice this year. The two leaders are also among Trump’s closest allies in Europe.
Trump’s oil ultimatum puts pressure on EU holdouts
Trump’s ultimatum comes as EU officials struggle to finalise a 19th sanctions package, whose approval has been delayed in part by his demands, with energy ministers reportedly meeting today to discuss the oil ban.
Trump’s move “might be a brilliant strategy,” as it forces the EU to act, Aura Sabadus, associate fellow of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) told The Parliament, but on the other hand, she adds, Trump’s demands might be a way to offload responsibility onto the EU.
So far, Hungary and Slovakia have enjoyed exemptions allowing deliveries of Russian oil via the Druzhba pipeline running through Ukraine, which was bombed by Kyiv last week.
The carve-outs were meant to give the two countries time to diversify, yet both have turned down proposed alternatives, like the Adria pipeline that runs through Croatia. Their continued payments keep bolstering Moscow’s war effort, with Russia having made close to €900 billion from oil exports since the beginning of the war up until 29 May this year, with €228 billion coming from the sanctioning countries, according to data from CREA.
EU risks deeper US dependence
The EU has already pledged to phase out Russian gas by 2027, and while Trump’s demands could potentially speed up the timeline, it would also tie the bloc closer to US suppliers.
In a recent visit to Brussels, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said it would be preferable for Europe to get its supplies from “its friends,” in order to “strangle Russia’s ability to fund this murderous war.”
But that logic also risks clashing with Brussel’s push for diversified supply chains. “It would wreck this kind of EU trade diversification strategy away from the American market and pull them back in dependency on the US,” Jamie Shea, a former NATO official, told The Parliament. “So it's just about Russia or is this about much greater sort of geopolitical issues?”
Trump’s wider demands remain unanswered
Hungary and Slovakia’s aren’t the only obstacles. Trump has also pressed for Turkey to phase out Russian imports — even though Ankara is Russia’s third-largest buyer, behind China and India.
“It's very unlikely that Turkey will be able to or want to stop buying crude oil from Russia,” said GMF’s Drumm. “That highlights some of the inconsistencies of NATO's position vis-à-vis Ukraine, but it's also a long-standing complaint of Trump's that countries continue to buy Russian fuel while opposing them in the war effort.”
In addition, Trump has called for the bloc to slap tariffs on China and for the EU to accelerate its gas phase-out. None of those demands has yet been addressed, and in some cases, such as EU tariffs on China, they would be nearly impossible to deliver given Europe’s economic ties.
There are also doubts as to whether Washington is really prepared to follow through. Trump has a track-record of grand promises and ultimatums that fizzle out. That leaves the question of whether any sanctions he does push for would be powerful enough — and fast enough — to make a difference in the near-term.
“Is the US really going to come out with ‘nuclear’ impact sanctions which are going to bring the Russian to its knees quickly and force Putin to stop the war?” said Shea. “Any sanctions take years to work, it's only now after three years of war that we're seeing the impacts of the initial sanctions on the Russian economy.”
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