Ending months of foot-dragging, European lawmakers on Thursday moved to ratify a widely unpopular trade agreement with the United States, clearing the biggest hurdle to implementing a deal originally meant to restore predictability in transatlantic relations.
The revised version, however, includes a safeguard against Washington’s volatility: provisions allowing the EU to walk away if the White House fails to stick to its word.
At stake was a decision to slash tariffs on U.S. industrial goods — and, to a lesser extent, agricultural products — following Washington’s decision last August to reduce duties on most European imports to 15% under the Turnberry deal.
The vote, split across two legal texts, will now pave the way for lawmakers, European Commission officials and member states to gather as soon as April 13 for final negotiations.
Among the safeguards backed by Parliament, the most forceful was a “suspension clause,” giving the bloc the right to roll back its commitments if U.S. President Donald Trump imposes new tariffs or makes fresh threats against the EU.
Lawmakers also inserted a so-called “sunrise clause,” linking implementation to U.S. follow-through on cutting levies on steel derivatives, which remain at 50%. Lastly, a “sunset clause” stipulates the deal’s expiration in March 2028.
“It’s a smart deal,” said Nicolas Köhler-Suzuki, a trade policy advisor at the Jacques Delors Institute. Continuing to keep the deal on hold would “have probably put us in the same situation as last year,” he added, referring to the period economic uncertainty before Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Trump signed the Turnberry deal.
Bernd Lange, the chair of the Parliament’s trade committee, posted on X that lawmakers were "weatherproofing the EU-US deal against headwinds from the U.S." He added: “New threats of tariffs or lack of benefits for EU manufacturers and consumers will lead to the legislation being phased out.”
The ballot, typically a formality, took place against a tense political backdrop. For months, the Parliament had held up ratification amid Trump's threats to acquire Greenland and a Supreme Court ruling that curbed the president’s authority to impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.
Not a done trade deal
But those expecting the new conditions to sail through member state negotiations may be disappointed, experts said.
David Kleimann, a trade analyst with the German Institute for Development and Sustainability, warned that Berlin — which has long resisted a more confrontational stance toward the U.S. amid fears of an escalation — may push back.
“We should expect that the German government will want to water down the sunset and the sunrise clause,” Kleimann said.
In a similar vein, Ignacio García Bercero, a non-resident fellow at economic think tank Bruegel and a former Commission official, praised the Parliament’s version as “constructive,” but admitted he expects member states to seek to relax some of the rules.
“The Council might consider that having the sunset clause in the last year of Trump’s term might not be the right approach,” he said. The U.S. is set to hold its next presidential election in 2028.
“It might be preferable to have the sunset clause in the first year of the new administration to give time to prepare negotiations of a free trade agreement based on symmetric commitments," García Bercero added.
Turnberry deal now in Washington’s court
The Parliament’s long-delayed ratification comes at an immensely complicated time for Washington, with the U.S. administration racing to replace dozens of duties imposed over the past year following the Supreme Court ruling last month.
The White House had promptly pivoted to Section 122 of the U.S. Trade Act, a far narrower tool that permits only temporary duties of up to 15% in response to "large and serious" balance-of-payments deficits.
In the meantime, in an effort to preserve elevated tariffs, the administration has already launched new investigations under Section 301 citing unfair trade practices, while more are expected to come under Section 232, which is tied to national security concerns.
For now, it is unclear whether the U.S. administration will embrace the deal to stabilize transatlantic relations or push back against Brussels’ new conditions.
“The more reasonable voices in the administration would probably be happy to accept this [deal] and see this as a step to consolidate their trade agenda,” said Köhler-Suzuki of the Jacques Delors Institute. “If they [the Americans] can stabilize trade with Europe, they can focus more on China and the rest of the world,” he explained.
What is clear, however, is that Washington will use every legal means at its disposal to restore new levies.
Köhler-Suzuki argued that the EU should be under no illusions: “They will find a way to bring tariffs back,” he said, warning that even a shift in the midterm elections expected in November would not reverse Trump’s signature policy.
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