The European Union “must anticipate” significant Russian involvement in Armenia’s parliamentary elections this summer and be prepared to do more to help Yerevan counter hybrid interference, the European Commission’s Marta Kos said on Friday.
In an exclusive interview with The Parliament, Kos, the Slovenian commissioner overseeing the EU’s enlargement agenda, said that Russian meddling in Armenia was “already happening.”
“We have experienced in Moldova that Russia was willing to spend hundreds of millions [of euros] to stop the European path of Moldovans,” she said. “This time I'm even more in favor of the European Union helping countries that are under such pressure.”
Last September, Moscow orchestrated a €300 million interference campaign to influence Moldovan parliamentary elections, seen at the time as a key battleground between Russia and the West. The EU threw its full weight behind President Maia Sandu's pro-European governing party, which ultimately prevailed in the vote and reaffirmed the country’s determination to join the EU.
Unlike Moldova, Armenia is not an EU candidate country, but it is a similar bellwether of Russian influence in the EU’s eastern neighborhood.
A small Caucasian nation bordering Turkey, Georgia, Azerbaijan and Iran — one that has been scarred by a history of regional conflicts — Armenia is set to hold National Assembly elections on June 7. The vote is expected to determine whether the country continues to move closer to the West or is pulled back into Russia’s orbit.
Adding to the political significance of the moment, the ballot will take place roughly a year after Armenia and Azerbaijan that brought a decades-old conflict over the Nagorno-Karabakh region to an end.
Kos, who will be in Yerevan on a formal visit next Thursday, said the EU will support Armenia to counter possible Russian cyberattacks that could undermine elections, while also helping to debunk disinformation.
The Commission official explained that Russia typically relies on three main narratives to wield influence in former Soviet states. “The first has to do with security,” she said, noting that Moscow promotes the idea that, as in Ukraine, aligning with the EU would make the country less secure.
“The second is economic: if you accept European assistance, you will become dependent on Europe,” she said.
And the third focuses on identity, suggesting that moving closer to the EU would undermine Armenia’s national identity — something Kos said she found “really perverse,” given the EU’s motto — “United in diversity” — states just the opposite.
Meanwhile, in a speech in the European Parliament in Strasbourg on Wednesday, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan that Russian Orthodox clergy members bankrolled by the Kremlin were actively attempting to derail the peace process with Azerbaijan by spreading false narratives.
If Armenia were to be put back on a war footing it would indirectly , according to the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. Moscow, which played a questionable mediation role in Armenia’s 30-year conflict with Azerbaijan, has historically benefitted from keeping Yerevan dependent on Russian security.
EU-Armenia relations
Kos was adamant that EU-Armenia ties have never been stronger. She cited efforts to make EU visas more accessible to Armenians as part of ongoing .
Brussels’ growing interest in Yerevan, much like its focus on Chișinău, can be partly explained by the democratic backsliding of some regional neighbors — from Georgia to Belarus.
“For us, Armenia is one of the most reliable partners in the East,” Kos told The Parliament.
High-ranking European officials will travel to Yerevan on May 5 for the first-ever EU-Armenia summit.
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