The Lancet has revealed a shocking forecast: by 2030, an estimated 2.5 million child deaths will be attributable to recent global cuts to aid, especially the Trump administration’s decision one year ago to close USAID.
After standing as a pillar of American soft power since the 1960s, Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that 83% of USAID's programs would be cancelled, involving more than 5,000 contracts.
While the United States has led this slashing of aid to the world’s most vulnerable people, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Belgium and other countries have also sharply cut their aid budgets. And the real-life impact is being acutely felt in many countries across the developing world.
The Devex ‘Aid Report’ recently documented some of the impacts across poor countries. In Uganda, 25% of HIV infected women gave birth to HIV positive children after treatment interruptions. In Tanzania, 14 vocational training schools were closed. In Kyrgyzstan, 45,000 children in 450 schools lost nutritious meals.
But there are other less obvious effects. For developing countries, funding for civil society has fallen off a cliff, bringing down vital structures that hold illiberal governments to account. Also, as governments seek to shore up social services, taxes increase, or additional debt is taken on. Most lower income countries spend more on debt than on their health systems.
It would be wrong to characterize developing countries as helpless or lacking agency in responding to the events of the last 12 months. A longer term shift to self-reliance has been accelerated. But a pattern has emerged that highly aid-dependent countries were largely incapable of launching a domestic response to the cuts.
At its core, development assistance exists to reduce poverty. But poverty reduction has always served broader interests as well. So, when development assistance is reduced, donor countries in Europe and elsewhere are impacted.
When donor countries cut aid, they do not only affect distant populations, but they can also negatively affect their own security and stability.
In the EU, we are beginning the negotiations on the next budget period for 2028 to 2034. The EU and its member states account for 40% of development aid globally, so the negotiations are crucial.
The good news is that the development section of the EU’s budget, called the ‘Global Europe Initiative’ under Commissioner Jozef Síkela has been increased substantially. The bad news is that these budget figures include funding for countries in line to join the EU, like Ukraine.
The EU’s 300 billion euro strategy, the ‘Global Gateway,’ is Europe’s response to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, and provides a framework for European businesses to invest in infrastructure globally alongside investments in education and health.
Given the current geopolitical turmoil, the EU and all international partners must rapidly adapt their development strategies.
The EU must remain a global development leader. It is unclear whether the current investment-focus strategy of the European Commission is working, or whether the next EU budget will provide the necessary resources. The Irish Presidency of the Council, especially given Ireland’s proud record in this area, must work with the European Parliament to show real development leadership.
Let’s reform development aid to be more effective in the new geopolitical reality. But above all, let’s figure out how to save as many of those 2.5 million children as possible.
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