WARSAW—Nationalist Karol Nawrocki’s razor-thin victory in Poland’s presidential runoff on Sunday delivered a significant blow to the country’s pro-European governing coalition — an upset expected to further stall Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s rule-of-law reforms and pro-EU agenda.
Nawrocki — a political novice backed by the right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party and endorsed by Donald Trump — took home 50.89% of the vote, edging out Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, who garnered 49.11%. Trzaskowski hails from Tusk’s centre-right Civic Coalition.
The outcome, which followed a tense and polarising campaign, sets the stage for ongoing institutional gridlock between the president and prime minister.
“Nawrocki’s win won’t immediately change Warsaw’s relations with Brussels,” Spasimir Domaradzki, a political scientist at the University of Warsaw, told The Parliament. “But domestically, it means a continued legislative stalemate.”
In a bid to shore up support, Tusk announced the day after the election that he will seek a vote of confidence in parliament in an effort to reinforce his government's mandate.
While the Polish presidency is a largely ceremonial role, the head of state can veto legislation and shape foreign and security policy as the country’s commander in chief. Since Tusk, a former European Council president, was re-elected prime minister in late 2023 — ending eight years of unencumbered PiS rule — President Andrzej Duda (PiS) has repeatedly wielded his veto powers to block pro-EU reforms, including to restore the rule of law and judicial indepedence.
The previous government’s attacks on the judiciary and free press had prompted a rule-of-law dispute with Brussels, resulting in the suspension of billions of euros in funding in mid-2023.
That’s a pattern likely to continue under Nawrocki, experts say.
“It's difficult to predict what Nawrocki will do because he doesn't have any experience,” Monika Sus, an associate professor of political science at the Polish Academy of Sciences, told The Parliament. “However, we can expect him to be very loyal to the PiS-party and block Tusk’s agenda the same as Duda did.”
Rallying against Brussels
Nawrocki has followed the PiS playbook by cultivating close ties with fellow nationalist leaders in Central Europe, including Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and Slovakia’s Robert Fico, particularly when it comes to a hardline approach on migration.
For Orbán, who endorsed Nawrocki at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Poland last week, the result represents a strategic gain: a fellow Central European leader fiercely critical of Brussels.
At CPAC, Nawrocki also received public backing from US Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem. That show of support followed Nawrocki’s trip to the White House in May, where he was embraced by US President Trump — a right-wing nationalist who’s made no secret of his disdain for the European Union.
Nawrocki embodies a Eurosceptic stance that stops short of outright opposition to EU membership, favouring continued participation while pushing back against deeper integration.
During the campaign, Nawrocki framed his opponent as a proxy for Brussels. He railed against the EU Green Deal as a threat to Polish industry and sovereignty, while stoking fears that Trzaskowski’s pro-European platform would open the country’s borders to an influx of illegal migration under pressure from the EU.
“Nawrocki won on matters that do not concern daily Polish politics,” said Domaradzki. “He used narratives like the Green Deal and migration as an endless source of cheap political mobilisation.”
Some voters echoed those themes. “I voted for Nawrocki because I think he represents Poland’s interests best,” said Jan, a 52-year-old priest from Warsaw. “Since joining the EU, our country has been losing its identity.”
Others cast their ballots reluctantly. “I voted for Trzaskowski because he is the lesser evil,” said Karol Tyczynski, 48. “I always vote against PiS.”
Warsaw's pivotal role in Europe
Over the past two decades, Poland has shifted from the EU’s periphery to become one of its rising power centres. Since joining the bloc in 2004, it's become the fastest-growing economy in Europe, with the European Commission projecting 3.3% growth this year.
It has also become a military heavyweight, currently spending nearly 5% of GDP on defence — up from around 2.4% percent in 2022 — and boasting more active troops than France, Germany or the UK. Warsaw’s central role in coordinating support for Ukraine following Russia’s unprovoked invasion in early 2022, including through the so-called Coalition of the Willing in Kyiv earlier this year, has further cemented its geopolitical standing.
Poland’s rapid military buildup began during the previous PiS government and continued under the Tusk coalition. Unlike Orbán, Polish nationalists — including outgoing President Duda — generally support Ukraine and resolutely oppose Russian aggression.
But Nawrocki’s positions could complicate Warsaw's pro-Ukraine stance. During the campaign, he criticised Ukrainian refugees and voiced scepticism about the possibility of Ukraine joining the EU or NATO.
“It’s a big question mark whether this is now the line of the PiS-party or whether this is an offspring of the US narrative on NATO and Ukraine,” Sus said, referencing the Trump administration’s noncommittal stance on Ukrainian security guarantees. “Nawrocki wants to be recognised as a leader by the White House. This could be talk to make Poland great again in the eyes of Trump.”
Poland’s political split widens
Nawrocki’s narrow victory underscores the profound polarisation of the Polish electorate, reflecting a country divided between two competing visions of democracy: one anchored in liberal, pro-European values, the other rooted in national populism.
Young voters proved decisive in the runoff — either by switching allegiances or by staying home in protest, reshaping the electoral map in subtle but significant ways.
During the first round of voting on 18 May, many young Poles backed candidates from anti-establishment parties on opposite ends of the political spectrum. Far-right candidate Slawomir Mentzen led among those aged 18 to 29, with 34.8% of the vote, followed by left-wing contender Adrian Zandberg, who took home 18.7%.
Those voting preferences at the margins reflected frustration with Tusk’s government over the slow pace of reform, experts say.
In the second round, some disillusioned younger voters stayed away from the polls altogether. “I don’t see the point of voting for anyone if I’m not in favour of the demands of either side,” said Karolina, a 20-year-old university student in Warsaw.
Yet among those who did turn out, many ultimately broke for the right — with more than half of voters between the ages of 18 and 39 casting their ballots for Nawrocki, a further rebuke of Tusk’s governing coalition.
“If liberal centrists want to actually win [younger] voters…they have to start speaking their language,” said Sus. “The government has a lot of homework to do on that front.”
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