The next round of European Union enlargement will be largely determined in 2026. For Montenegro, this year is decisive, as Podgorica aims to close all technical negotiations to become the next member state. Yet this round of enlargement will be driven more by internal EU bargaining than by the reform delivery of candidate countries.
In this context, the evolution of peace negotiations on Ukraine and the politics of key government parties in France and Germany — under threat from far-right Eurosceptic movements — will be decisive in shaping the political willingness to admit new countries to the bloc.
Three questions
There are three fundamental questions that will determine the pace of the process in the coming year.
First, the development and the potential outcome of the US-led peace negotiations to end the Russian aggression against Ukraine will influence Europe's ability to offer Kyiv integration into the EU's institutional architecture — which will instruct European policymakers on how to navigate a post-Transatlantic era.
How this question of peace and security on the European continent unfolds will determine the nature and potency of enlargement as a reanimated foreign policy. For the Balkans — arguably the only region the EU can still shape and lead — there will hardly be substantial progress without a decision on how to integrate Ukraine.
Second, while the consensus is that the enlargement logic is shaped by the reform speed of the frontrunner candidates and the geopolitical consideration of the European Commission, the next turn of EU expansion is more a case of domestic European politics.
Given the need to reform the EU — further integrate while cutting red tape and reducing foreign dependencies — France and Germany's incumbent parties will be under pressure from far-right, Eurosceptic parties that are challenging them to take power.
A decision by Paris and Berlin to admit a new member will be driven by the political calculus of upcoming state elections later this year in east Germany and French presidential elections in 2027. The danger of offering fertile ground to anti-establishment parties to instrumentalize the enlargement's impact on the EU budget and European cohesion cannot be underestimated. Indirectly, membership becomes a question about the future of liberal democracy in the bloc and the Union's 'actorness.'
This consideration follows last December's European Council meeting, where leaders noted the need to reform and invited the "Commission to present its in-depth policy reviews." These policy reviews will specify the reform areas of the European acquis, including the rules, procedures and the new member's institutional participation. The sensitive decision of unanimity voting in Council will be left for a later stage, anyhow.
Commissioner for Enlargement, Marta Kos, acknowledged that this process would establish a new generation of accession treaties by examining sensitive areas such as the rule of law, Council voting and designing safeguards and suspension in case of democratic backsliding. How member states will empower the Working Party on Drafting the Accession Treaty with Montenegro will determine their political resolve and set a blueprint for the next generation of accession treaties.
Third, the Commission considers Montenegro's ambition to close all negotiation chapters by 2026 as ambitious but doable. Podgorica seeks to demonstrate its "political compatibility with mature democracies" to the EU.
Although it is uncertain that Montenegro can implement reforms and close 21 remaining chapters, the country's current heterogeneous coalition needs to do so ahead of the next national elections in summer 2027. For Montenegro, building trust with European countries is critical, alongside the heavy administrative workload ahead.
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