With the right-wing figure Janez Janša returning for a fourth term as prime minister of Slovenia, the European Union may soon face another unstable, ideologically driven government at the European Council table. One that could complicate Brussels' agenda on issues ranging from migration to relations with the United States and Europe's approach to China and Russia.
The concern is not only that Slovenia is moving to the right, but that the new coalition may place Ljubljana among those capitals that treat European unity as negotiable, particularly in areas where unanimity still allows member states to delay, dilute or block common EU action.
Slovenia's rightward turn
Janša, leader of the right-wing Slovenian Democratic Party, or SDS, will head a fragile coalition that includes the center-right Democrats, led by former Foreign Minister Anže Logar, the Christian democratic New Slovenia and the far-right Resni.ca, founded by Zoran Stevanović, the incoming Speaker of the National Assembly.
Both Logar and Stevanović had pledged not to support another Janša government, yet both helped return him to power. This results in an uneasy coalition: a confrontational right-wing prime minister, Logar seeking to preserve a moderate image and Stevanović emerging from an anti-establishment, anti-vaccine and pro-Russian movement.
While the government is expected to shift toward economic and social conservatism, the deepest changes are likely to come in culture and foreign affairs. Domestically, this could bring renewed pressure on civil society, trade unions, independent institutions and the media.
The expected appointment of Tone Kajzer as foreign minister only deepens these concerns. Despite his background as a career diplomat, Kajzer has been an SDS member and was dismissed as Slovenia's ambassador to the U.S. in 2022 after breaching the confidentiality of the diplomatic dispatch system.
His appointment would likely signal a sharp shift in Slovenian foreign policy, including a more openly pro-Israel stance, a possible attempt to reverse recognition of Palestinian statehood and a move to relocate Slovenia's embassy to Jerusalem.
A more hawkish approach is expected toward China and Russia, although a planned visit to Moscow by Stevanović could create tensions both within the coalition and among Janša's partners in the European People's Party.
Impact in Brussels
The new government might also seek the removal of Slovenia's European Commissioner Marta Kos — a move that could be seen as part of Janša's long-running conflict with the Kos family.
Her brother, Drago Kos, served as the first chair of Slovenia's Commission for the Prevention of Corruption. Findings by the commission on Janša's assets and financial disclosures helped trigger the political crisis that brought down his second government in 2013.
In Brussels, the new Slovenian government may view EU politics less as a space for common solutions than as a platform for nationalist positioning, ideological bargaining and pressure on European decision-making.
For Brussels, the greater concern is that the new coalition could make Slovenia a less predictable and reliable partner in the Council.
Under Janša, Slovenia risks shifting from a constructive member state to one more willing to use EU divisions for political leverage, particularly on those issues where unanimity is required.
The election campaign was turbulent and polarizing, overshadowed by allegations of foreign interference involving the Israeli private intelligence firm Black Cube and its alleged links to Janša's party. Whether those allegations ultimately lead to political or legal consequences, including EU sanctions or funding restrictions, remains to be seen.
Slovenia faces a test of whether democratic standards, institutional transparency and public trust can be preserved.
Internationally, Slovenia also risks retreating from the principled role it has played alongside Spain, Ireland and Norway in recognizing a Palestinian state and defending international law — a shift that could prove consequential and long-lasting.
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