On Tuesday, French President Emmanuel Macron was left searching for his fifth Prime Minister in just two years after François Bayrou fell to a no-confidence vote amid a bitter budget standoff.
Bayrou’s fall is more than a personal setback. It is the latest symptom of a deeper malaise in French politics, one amplified by a world growing more unstable.
Macron’s rise in 2017 marked the first time since Valéry Giscard d’Estaing in 1974 that France elected a truly centrist, liberal president. While both promised to modernise the country, Macron’s victory went further: it shattered more than century of left-right alternation.
The vacuum left by the collapse of the Socialists and the Republicans was swiftly filled by the extremes who moved in from the sidelines, turned their fire on the centre, and exploited every misstep to expand their power.
Bayrou’s fall shows the risk of political naivety
Fights over retirement reform, which have raged for close to a decade, are a major reason for Bayrou’s fall. At a time when households are already squeezed by inflation, his attempts to negotiate an austerity budget, including cutting two public holidays, proved political suicide.
His failures are both a demonstration of a lack of judgement and a centre that is losing public support. The move also ignored two simple truths: that people do not vote to lose their rights, and that growth requires investment, intelligent reform and innovative thinking.
Bayrou could have explored ways to increase revenues in the 2026 budget, such as implementing the Zucman tax, an internationally discussed 2% tax on assets above €100 million. Instead, he doubled down on austerity and cost-cutting measures, a move too easily weaponised by France’s political extremes.
France is trapped in a partisan political model
France’s political culture has become one of confrontation rather than consensus. Germany, Denmark, the Netherlands and other member states have become accustomed to coalition-building. But French politicians continue to treat every policy change as a life-or-death ideological battle.
This renders negotiations near impossible and leaves the country firmly behind the times. Successive centrist governments have advanced reforms, only to be bogged down by procedural chaos—shouting matches, thousands of amendments, and endless delays.
Olivia Grégoire, the former vice-president of the finance committee in the French Parliament, outlined the problem at a committee hearing. Nineteen suspensions, 83 points of order, and threats of a further 700,000 amendments were on the agenda to be discussed, virtually paralysing any progress. “It’s no longer the assembly, it’s a circus,” she wrote on X.
France’s political shift is a matter of survival
The French experience suggests that only leaders with extraordinary legitimacy, such as post-war De Gaulle, and the early Giscard d'Estaing and Macron eras, can push through major changes.
But this legitimacy is fleeting and vulnerable, and in the absence of consensus, confrontation is inevitable. France needs a cultural shift away from its destructive model of politics that benefits extremist politicians who abuse power for personal gain.
Without change, French purse strings will be tighter than ever before. The IMF forecasts that French public debt will reach 130% of GDP by 2030 and French debt repayments will increase from €30 billion in 2020 to €100 billion by 2030.
Gabriel Attal, another former Prime Minister, suggested appointing a negotiator—not a premier— to broker a compromise with as many partners as possible and sketch out a governance plan that would let parliament complete its work. Predictably, many reacted with outrage.
Macron’s appointment of new Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu will likely mean another politician being sacrificed with little to show due to the unwillingness to compromise.
Impacts beyond France’s frontiers
France’s instability risks becoming an international weapon. With France playing a leading, nuclear-powered role in Europe and marshalling efforts to counter Russia in Ukraine, its institutions, political debates, and protest movements have become the targets of disinformation and destabilisation efforts.
The “block everything” protests, antisemitic acts targeting synagogues, and inflammation of tensions surrounding Israel and Palestine have each had a flavour of foreign interference.
These covert efforts are designed to create tensions and fracture our democracy from within. This has been made all the easier by internal instability. Extremist actors, both on the far-left and far-right, have benefitted from the chaos.
A fragmented, unstable France is precisely what its enemies desire. Preventing this will require vigilance, and common sense, from citizens and leaders.
France’s stubborn dilemma
Bayrou’s ousting is another reminder of France’s enduring dilemma: how to reconcile its revolutionary tradition with the reformist demands of today.
Until France returns to responsible governance with serious politicians, the country will continue careening towards deeper chaos, weakening both the country and the European Union. As political extremes grow stronger and foreign powers become bolder, France risks losing any stability that makes reform possible.
The election of 2027 will be no ordinary contest, but a referendum on whether France can restore stability under responsible leadership or handing power to those intent on tearing it down.
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