This week, after intense consulting with member states and political groups in the European Parliament, Wopke Hoekstra, the European Commissioner for Climate, Net Zero and Clean Growth, has proposed a 2040 target of 90% net reductions compared to 1990. It is positive that the 90% figure remains in place, however the target risks being diluted from inside by the various flexibilities presented.
It is essential to advance ambitious 2040 climate targets for the sake of European businesses. They require clarity and confidence in the EU’s decarbonisation agenda to ensure continued investment in the green transition.
For this, the Commission must provide policy coherence across all relevant areas and align them with the European Union’s climate objectives. Decarbonisation must serve as the overarching policy goal, with electrification — direct wherever feasible — as a cornerstone for achieving this ambition.
A less ambitious path, often referred to as a non-linear pathway towards 2040, carries significant risk. Carbon dioxide emitted today will remain in the atmosphere for thousands of years, so delaying action not only increases long-term damage but also postpones the necessary incentives for transitioning to a low-carbon economy.
Flexibilities risk diluting the target
The Commission’s proposal includes the option to purchase emission credits from non-EU countries to compensate for delayed emission reductions within the Union. Such international carbon credit schemes have proven to be less reliable than those generated within the EU, due to challenges in monitoring their impact and ensuring the permanence of carbon storage.
An increase in the share of offsets allowed in relation to actual emission reductions also emerges as a risk from the current proposal. Scientific consensus makes it clear that to prevent catastrophic climate change, we must drastically reduce emissions and phase out fossil fuels.
While carbon removals will be necessary to address emissions that are hard to eliminate, their role must be limited. Removals reduce existing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, but there are technical, economic and environmental constraints on the scale of permanent negative emissions that can be achieved. Given the limitations of offsets and removals, electrification powered by green energy sources will be the primary and most reliable path to rapid and lasting emission reductions.
Target commitment key for competitiveness
The interim targets for 2030 and 2040, as well as the 2035 target to be communicated by the EU to the UN this year, are essential milestones to reaching the EU's 2050 climate neutrality goal.
Nordic industry is already at the forefront of the green transition, leading by example. Companies need certainty to invest in the electrification of industrial processes. Increased electrification is the best way to ensure firmness of demand which improves the business case for clean energy projects in Europe. Accelerated electrification will be pivotal for European competitiveness alongside retaining EU domestic capabilities and reducing strategic dependencies on certain external suppliers.
There is also a growing Nordic market for negative emissions through programmes such as the capture and permanent storage of carbon dioxide emissions of biogenic origin. These initiatives risk being nipped in the bud if emission credits from third countries, which are often cheaper and far less reliable, are given more space in the EU's climate policy.
A weakening of the EU's climate policy would be a blow to Nordic and European competitiveness.
The green industrial transition has lost momentum due to uncertainties about the future of climate targets and regulations. Transition, resilience and competitiveness go hand in hand. Europe has abundant renewable energy sources that would allow it to transition away from the fossil economy, while increasing competitiveness and shielding itself from price volatility and fuel import dependency.
According to the recent EU Barometer, as many as 88% of Europeans call for more renewables and energy efficiency, while 81% support the EU’s goal of reaching climate neutrality by 2050. The way to get there is via strong 2035 and 2040 target.
The EU must adopt a robust, ambitious and science-backed climate target for 2040. It must align with the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change (2025) and set three separate 2040 targets for gross emission reductions, permanent carbon dioxide removals and temporary carbon dioxide removals.
Therefore, we call on the European Parliament, the Council of the European Union, Nordic governments and the Nordic Council to take responsibility and push for maintaining high ambition in future climate negotiations.
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