After months of delays and last-minute political wrangling, the European Commission on Wednesday presented a draft Climate Law aiming to set in stone its ambition to slash 90% of the EU’s carbon emissions over the next decade and a half.
Set against a global backlash against climate policy, the proposal sends a signal that, unlike the US, Europe’s effort to cut emissions is alive and kicking.
“The commitment remains,” Commission Vice-President Teresa Ribera told reporters at a press conference on Wednesday. “So for all of those challenging the science, hiding the problems, asking to postpone, the response coming from Europe is very clear.”
Although new polling suggests that a large majority of Europeans support ambitious climate action, the more right-wing cohort of lawmakers who entered the European Parliament last year, along with a rightward shift in many national governments, means the path forward to green legislation is not obvious. The proposal, initially slated for release in February, was timed to coincide with the start of climate-friendly Denmark’s presidency of the Council of the European Union.
Still, more countries have begun voicing concerns that an overly ambitious emissions target could place an excessive burden on businesses — an argument that has already led to the weakening of several planned laws and the outright scrapping of one, on greenwashing.
With negotiations set to begin next week at an Environment Council in Denmark, can the 90% target garner enough support to survive — and be endorsed in time for a global climate summit later this year?
Is the 90% cut for real?
On the surface, the Commission has proposed cutting 90% of planet-warming emissions by 2040 compared to 1990 levels — formalising a target that has been floated for years, with mentions appearing in an earlier communication dated February 2024, and in Wopke Hoekstra’s mandate as commissioner for climate.
The target is backed by science. In 2023 the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change (ESABCC), an independent think tank founded by the EU executive, said the 27-member bloc should slash between 90% and 95% of its carbon emissions by 2040 to keep on track with its net zero plans.
But while adhering to the headline target, the revised Climate Law grants significant leeway to member states on how to achieve it, allowing for scientifically dubious methods such as carbon offsetting.
Under the draft, up to 3% of the goal can be met by international carbon credits starting from 2036 — meaning that member states will be able to make payments towards climate-friendly projects around the world instead of cutting their own emissions, which is typically more expensive. That marks a departure from the 2030 target, which requires all emissions cuts to be made within the EU.
“We’re clearly ambitious, and yet we’re pragmatic and flexible about how to achieve it,” Hoekstra said at Wednesday’s news conference.
Is everybody happy?
There’s no such thing as a policy that pleases everyone — especially when it comes to climate, a notoriously polarising topic. The decision to allow EU countries to count carbon credits towards their own target has sparked a particularly sharp backlash from scientists and climate advocates, who argue such measures offer only a superficial fix to a deepening crisis.
“International carbon credits might offer short-term cost relief, but they don’t build the infrastructure or technology the EU needs to thrive in a low-carbon world,” Codie Rossi, Europe director at the Clean Air Task Force, said in a statement. EU scientific advisers also warned against such a measure, citing risks of “diverting resources from domestic investments” and “undermin[ing] environmental integrity.”
Disagreement also flared over the decision to integrate carbon removals into the EU’s flagship carbon market after 2030 — a move expected to indirectly lower costs for energy-hungry industries — as well as to grant more flexibility between countries’ CO2 absorption targets and emissions reduction targets.
Rachel Kennerley, a campaigner at the Geneva-based Center for International Environmental Law, argued that “reliance on loopholes like carbon offsetting and speculative technologies leaves [the target] hollow.”
EU officials have defended the new pragmatic approach as the only realistic way to get the law passed. “The world at the beginning of 2024 is not the world of today,” said Ribera.
Hoekstra, meanwhile, described the decision to open up to flexibilities as “fair game” and an overall “improvement” compared to the ideas floated last year.
Can the EU realistically hit the target?
The short answer is yes — and the latest evidence shows that countries aren’t that far from reaching their 2030 targets.
In a rare piece of good news for climate policy, the EU executive revealed in May that national climate plans submitted by member states painted a more optimistic picture than expected. Collectively, the EU appears to be on track to cut emissions by 54% by 2030 — just one percentage point shy of the legally binding target.
“A 90-95% domestic reduction by 2040 is feasible and aligned with Europe’s strategic interests,” the ESABCC said in a statement this week. Its chair, Ottmar Edenhofer, said the target is “fully compatible with tackling Europe’s other urgent priorities, in particular on security and competitiveness.”
An earlier impact assessment published in February last year showed that, if the EU was just to extend the “Fit for 55” framework up until 2040, the bloc would cut its emissions by a staggering 88% with no extra lifting.
How does the 2040 climate target connect to global climate diplomacy?
There is a clear link between the 2040 target and the bloc’s 2035 United Nations climate goal, best known as a nationally determined contribution (NDC). With the UN’s 30th Conference of the Parties (COP) looming in November, parties to the international Paris Agreement are required to submit their updated climate targets by the end of September.
The two, however, differ in one key aspect: while agreeing on the 2040 climate targets only requires a qualified majority under EU rules — 55% of countries representing 65% of the population — reaching a deal on the NDC will demand a far harder unanimity. That adds extra pressure on Denmark to finalise an agreement on the NDC in record time, although a revised Climate Law will only be finalised in early 2026.
While the logistics are complex, the Commission expressed hope about the prospect of reaching a timely agreement ahead of COP30 in Brazil, noting that the bloc’s climate leadership is at stake.
“It is difficult to imagine that the EU will not be part of the [UN] synthesis report,” a senior Commission official told reporters on Wednesday.
Can Denmark do the job?
Since it took over the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union on 1 July, Denmark has found itself in a particularly delicate position.
“It’s a major political lift for Denmark to craft a deal on both 2040 and 2035,” Linda Kalcher, executive director of Strategic Perspectives, a climate think tank, told The Parliament.
To Jens Mattias Clausen, EU director at the Danish green think tank Concito, his country is as “excited” as it is “concerned” about its new role. “It is an opportunity we didn’t want — but it is an opportunity to hash out an iconic agreement,” said Clausen.
Still, he admitted, it will be a race against the clock, especially with a summer recess wiping a month off the calendar. With less than three months until the deadline to submit new targets ahead of COP30, Copenhagen is already pushing to kick off negotiations at next week’s Environment Council.
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