Majority of Europeans believe UK will reject Brexit

A major poll in nine different European countries shows that a small majority of Europeans believes that the British will reject a Brexit in the 23 June referendum, 53 per cent against 47.

By Martin Banks

Martin Banks is a senior reporter at the Parliament Magazine

10 May 2016

The poll involved 14 different countries, including nine European nations such as Belgium, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Spain, Britain and Sweden. The investigation involved 1000 respondents aged under 65 in each country.

While 53 per cent of the respondents in European countries think the British will stay in the EU, this figure is remarkably different for Britain, where only a minority of 35 per cent thinks the UK will leave the EU. Leaving out the British statistics, the European figure would go to 51 versus 49 per cent. 

If a referendum was held in Belgium, only 29 per cent of the Belgians would vote for leaving the EU, says the Ipsos poll.


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Meanwhile, more than two-thirds of Scottish business chiefs want the country to remain in the EU. 

There are concerns that growth could suffer if the UK leaves among more than a third (36.1 per cent) of firms who took part in a survey organised by the Scottish Chambers of Commerce (SCC), although slightly more said there will be no impact.

The SCC survey found that voting intentions have narrowed marginally among business leaders, with Leave now polling three percentage points higher at 22 per cent than in the SCC's February survey. 

In total, 68.3 per cent of Scottish business leaders said they will vote to remain in the EU, with 22.9 per cent voting to leave. Some 36.1 per cent say growth could suffer under Brexit - but 41.1 per cent said there will be no impact. But opinions among the 357 people who took part now appear set, with little prospect of change before the vote, according to SCC chief executive Liz Cameron.

She said: "The majority of businesses who took part indicated they would not be changing their views."

The views in the rest of the UK are tightening, with 54 per cent supporting Remain and 37 per cent wishing to exit.

The SCC poll comes as separate research by jobs website reed.co.uk, revealed more than 61.5 per cent of Scots employers are in favour of staying in the EU. 

Elsewhere, in an open letter to the Daily Telegraph, five former Nato secretaries-generals - Lord Carrington; Javier Solana; Lord Robertson;  Jaap de Hoop Scheffer and Anders Fogh Rasmussen - describe the EU as a key partner for Nato in helping to stave off instability on the continent and the wider region. 

They argue, "At a time of global instability, and when Nato is trying to reinforce its role in Eastern Europe, it would be very troubling if the UK ended its membership of the EU… Brexit would undoubtedly lead to a loss of British influence, undermine Nato and give succour to the West's enemies."

Separately, 13 former US secretaries of state and defence and national security advisers argue in an open letter to the Times that, "The world needs a strong and united Europe to work with the US to address the many geopolitical and economic challenges we face… The special relationship between our countries would not compensate for the loss of influence and clout that the UK would suffer if it was no longer part of the EU."

 

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