Europe’s climate credibility hangs in the balance at COP30

Europe’s record on climate finance is under pressure from strains on public budgets and geopolitics. But as leaders head to Brazil for COP30, trust in the EU’s commitments could help determine whether the global green transition stays on track.
Economic and Financial Affairs Council roundtable, Luxembourg, 10 October 2025 (European Union)

By Kira Taylor

Kira Taylor is a Brussels-based freelance reporter covering climate, energy and environment.

28 Oct 2025

As the world heads to Belém, Brazil for the COP30 climate summit, continued and enhanced climate finance is critical to building trust. For developing countries already facing floods, droughts and debt, tangible commitments are essential to enable their participation in the green transition and to uphold the credibility of the wealthiest countries. 

Developing countries are calling for greater ambition. Yet while European Union finance ministers stated their support for climate finance in their conclusions ahead of COP30, they face increasing budgetary pressures, with countries like Germany and France cutting overseas aid. Meanwhile, the United States retreat from international climate action has placed additional pressure on the EU to deliver. 

The climate finance trust gap 

The EU and its member states remain the world’s largest contributors to climate finance. In 2023, they provided €28.6 billion from public sources and mobilised a further €7.2 billion from private ones. 

At their October meeting, EU finance ministers renewed their pledge to help achieve a climate finance goal of $100 billion (€86 billion) a year up to 2025, and acknowledged the new global goal to reach at least $300 billion (€258 billion) annually by 2035. 

However, the $300 billion target has been criticised by developing countries as too low. Environmental groups also argue the EU’s recently agreed approach to climate finance lacks a vision for future commitments, particularly as member states cut overseas development aid. 

“Negotiations are practically built on trust... and one of the biggest enablers of trust in the UN climate negotiation process is climate finance,” David Ryfisch from the NGO Germanwatch told The Parliament

“The absence of climate finance, or the significant difference between what is needed and what is provided, erodes trust and makes negotiations in general significantly more difficult,” he said, highlighting the uncertainty this creates for developing countries. 

The EU and its member states must come forward with new climate finance contributions to meet the 2035 goal, said Rachel Simon of the NGO Climate Action Network. She criticised the fact that, although the conclusions acknowledged the urgency of the climate crisis, they offered no plan to scale up contributions. 

“We are basically calling on all EU member states to come to COP with a new climate finance pledge to respond to the new goal. Most of them are due to renew their climate finance pledges because of the multi-year cycles they're in,” she told The Parliament

Adaptation: the next frontier for climate finance 

While COP29 was dubbed the ‘climate finance’ COP, more work remains to be done in Belém. Countries must now decide the next steps for adaptation finance – money that helps communities and economies cope with the impacts of climate change. 

In 2021, it was agreed that developed countries should at least double collective adaptation finance by 2025, compared with 2019 levels. Yet the Least Developed Countries (LDC) Group on Climate Change argued, in a press release published in June 2025, that this goal is “disconnected from the realities” the 44 countries involved in LDC face. The group is calling for the tripling of adaptation finance by 2030. 

The EU should support a new adaptation finance target at COP or at least offer short-term solutions like contributing to the adaptation fund, said Ryfisch. That fund has fallen drastically short of its mobilisation target in recent years but is critical for the least developed countries.  

“The EU could send a positive signal with a relatively low amount by meeting the mobilisation target this year, exceeding it, and thereby showing, OK, we've understood this is something, adaptation finance matters,” he told The Parliament

EU finance ministers have reaffirmed the EU's “continuous commitment to support and accelerate collective efforts towards adaptation action, especially supporting vulnerable countries to adapt to the impacts of climate change,” including by responding to the needs and priorities outlined by developing country partners. 

Mobilising private finance 

The Baku to Belém Roadmap, published on 27 October, will be another topic on the COP30 agenda. It will look at various solutions, likely including mobilising private finance and fostering systemic change to create enabling environments in developing countries for increased climate finance.  

EU finance ministers welcomed the roadmap, adding that it reflects the “urgent need and transformative potential to unlock significantly more private capital for climate action, and to its role in accelerating the necessary investments in the green transition of all economies.” 

The ministers suggested measures to attract private investments, such as carbon pricing, fossil fuel subsidy reforms, public investment and developing national climate plans underpinned by robust investment strategies. 

However, while EU finance ministers recognised the need to align financial flows with low emissions and climate-resilient development, Climate Action Network’s Simon said the roadmap lacks clarity on implementation. 

Shifting climate politics 

External pressures weigh heavily on the climate finance debate. The US has cut huge swathes of international finance, including for the green transition. Trump’s return to the White House has had geopolitical impacts, including in climate finance, MEP Lídia Pereira, a member of the European People’s Party, who will lead the European Parliament’s delegation to COP30, told The Parliament

In a resolution on the EU’s COP30 approach, the European Parliament voiced disappointment at the US’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and called on the country to continue its fair share of work on climate finance and emissions reductions. 

But, the US is not alone in cutting back. EU member states have also cut overseas aid budgets and national purses face increasing strain. 

Climate finance as a benefit to Europe 

Despite budgetary constraints, Ryfisch argues that climate finance works in the EU's interest and should be seen as an investment in reaching its security and competitiveness goals. It can uphold multilateralism, which is currently being eroded, and opens new clean tech markets for European companies. 

He added that climate finance helps reduce security risks linked to climate-driven instability and alleviates the climate impacts that increase the prices of EU imports, like coffee and cocoa. 

Simon echoed this: “Climate change is a threat multiplier, and if we don't support developing countries to adapt and deal with climate risks and transition risks, that's only going to harm the EU's security interests in the long term.” 

When it comes to climate finance for developing countries, Pereira told The Parliament that she still sees a strong commitment from the main European donor countries. However, it remains to be seen which countries pledge additional climate finance and how much this will add up to. 

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