LISBON—With growing competition from countries such as Brazil, Canada and China, which have strong public support, Europe's aeronautics industry is determined not to cede its global lead alongside the United States, or to allow that position to erode as the sector navigates the path to decarbonization by 2050.
"We need to have the tools in Europe to make sure that in 20 years, we remain where we are today," said Vincent De Vroey, civil aviation director at the Aerospace, Security and Defence Industries Association of Europe. "That we stay competitive and get the right support to do so."
Civil aeronautics remains one of Europe's last globally dominant high-tech sectors, accounting for around 40% of the global market and generating €109 billion in annual exports, according to ASD. Yet industry players warn that without a forward-looking industrial strategy — and sustained funding for research and innovation under the EU's next long-term budget — this edge could slip.
Part of the concern, De Vroey argues, is a policy imbalance. "Europe has many strategies for industries in crisis, such as steel, automotive and chemicals, but it should also have strategies for sectors that are performing well to ensure they remain competitive in the long term."
That debate is expected to sharpen in the coming months. By September, the European Commission is due to present a dedicated industrial strategy for aviation and aeronautics, covering regulatory simplification and the direction of EU research and innovation funding.
But even before that proposal lands, a broader question is already dividing experts and industry alike: can the sector stay globally competitive while meeting its climate goals?
This article is part of the The Parliament's special policy report "Unlocking investment for EU competitiveness."
Path to decarbonization
For the European industry, the answer hinges on a delicate balance: decarbonization without deindustrialization.
But according to Vincent de Haes, senior policy manager for aviation at the European Federation for Transport and Environment, existing EU policies and industrial plans are unlikely to deliver on the sector's 2050 climate commitments.
"Expected traffic growth and the insufficient deployment of new fuels and technologies indicate that we will not be able to decarbonize aviation by 2050," he said.
Projections by Airbus and Boeing suggest that passenger traffic from EU airports will more than double by 2050 compared to 2019. At the same time, T&E estimates that despite efficiency gains, aircraft could burn 59% more fuel over the same period.
A major bottleneck is sustainable aviation fuels, or SAF, widely seen as central to decarbonization. These are expected to deliver roughly 65% of the emissions reductions needed for net zero carbon dioxide by mid-century. Yet supply remains scarce and costly: SAF is projected to account for just 0.6% to 0.7% of global jet fuel production in 2025.
"To meet current targets," de Haes said, "the EU will need to accelerate the rollout of sustainable fuels and technologies, and in the meantime, curb demand for air travel until those solutions are widely available."
Industry representatives took a more optimistic view at the ASD Spring Convention, a major industry event for Europe's aerospace and defense sectors, held in Lisbon in April.
"We know what needs to be done," said Axel Krein, executive director of the Clean Aviation Joint Undertaking. "The question is whether we will be able to execute the plan."
Between 80% and 90% of emissions reductions by 2050 are expected to come from new technologies, such as advanced propulsion systems and electric aircraft, as well as sustainable aviation fuels.
If ongoing technological projects are successfully delivered, continue to receive financial backing and are scaled up alongside alternative fuels, Europe has "a strong chance of meeting the target," Krein said. "In the end, it comes down to political will — and political will is closely tied to financial resources."
€6 billion for research
Last year, a coalition of aviation trade associations estimated that achieving net zero emissions by 2050 would cost €1.3 trillion.
Decarbonization is a very long-term investment, said Micael Johansson, ASD president and CEO of Saab. "There must also be incentives and initiatives at the European level."
"Competition in China and the U.S. will definitely get support in ways that we haven't even thought about, so Europe can't just rely on the industry to take care of this," he added.
Under the next Multiannual Financial Framework (2028 to 2034), the sector is calling for €22 billion to support both competitiveness and decarbonization — €16 billion for industrial scaleup and the remaining €6 billion for research and innovation.
De Vroey said that emerging markets like India are currently buying a lot of European aircraft "because they want to grow, to be where Europe and the U.S. are today." The issue, he said, is that in order to sell them, production needs to be ramped up and Europe needs to make sure that it has the technologies "to stay on top of the market."
At the same time, geopolitical tensions are adding pressure. The war in the Middle East has already disrupted supply chains and driven up energy prices, prompting some industry calls to delay EU green policies such as the bloc's Emissions Trading System.
For de Haes, however, that shouldn't lead to the rollback of the bloc’s flagship climate policies.
"If anything, the war in Iran has shown how deeply problematic our dependence on fossil fuels is," he said.
According to T&E, rising oil prices have increased per-passenger costs by an average of €29 within the EU and €88 for flights outside the bloc; impacts that are "at least four to 20 times greater" than those linked to existing EU climate policies.
"We must trust and strengthen the [EU] mandates, invest in 'made-in-EU' electro-sustainable aviation fuel and ensure airlines are able to purchase this at scale."
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