€79bn boost to UK economy if it remains part of EU

A report from Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) outlines benefits to UK if it avoids Brexit.


By William Louch

20 Oct 2015

A UK-based economic forecaster has released a report estimating that Britain’s economy would grow by €79bn by 2030 with 790,000 jobs created if it opted to stay in the EU.

The CEBR, which conducted the study, said EU-led economic reforms such as developing a digital single market and opening up the finance and energy sectors could boost UK GDP by 2.8 per cent and increase average annual household earnings by up to €3856. Were the UK to leave the EU, access to these economic benefits would be compromised.

The report was commissioned by the Britain Stronger in Europe group, to coincide with the launch of their campaign for the UK to remain in the EU.


The organisation will be led by Lord Stuart Rose, a Tory peer and ex-chief executive of Marks and Spencer. Their campaign, in line with the report, will focus on outlining the positive benefits of a future within the EU - in contrast to highlighting the dangers of leaving.

Making the case for the Britain Stronger in Europe campaign, Rose said, "We want every person in Britain to see the potential future benefits of our membership and understand the true reality of life for Britain outside Europe. That means setting out the economic impact on every household in the UK and the missed opportunities for boosting the UK’s trade within the single market."

David Cameron, the UK Prime Minister, is currently attempting to renegotiate Britain's relationship with the EU.

He has been criticised for his lack of detail in outlining exactly what he wants for the UK, though he is expected to reveal the "four vital areas where we need change" at the beginning of November.

These four vital areas are expected to be: British exemption from a commitment to an "ever closer union"; more sovereignty for national parliaments including a new "red card" system that allows UK to block unwanted EU law; increased protection for non-Eurozone countries; a clear statement confirming the euro is not the official currency of the EU.

Cameron's success - or otherwise - in achieving these demands is likely to play a key role in determining whether Britain remains in the bloc.

Meanwhile, his critics are sceptical as to whether he will be able to achieve substantial reform, with senior Conservatives making it increasingly clear they want to leave the EU.

Crispin Blunt, a Conservative MP and chair of the UK Parliament's influential foreign affairs committee, has said that he doesn't believe successful negotiations will be enough to change the minds of "the bulk of the [Conservative] backbenchers."

In a further sign of division within the party, six Conservative cabinet ministers demanded for Cameron to waive "cabinet collective responsibility" which would mean that ministers are allowed to campaign for the UK to back the "out" campaign.

Opinion among the UK electorate is hard to gauge, although recent polls suggest the 'Out' campaign is building momentum.

In June 2015, an Ipsos Mori poll recorded record levels of support for remaining in the EU, with 61 per cent backing continuing UK membership.

However, polls released this month showed that this lead had been cut considerably. An ICM poll indicated that only 45 per cent were in favour of continuing British membership, while a YouGov poll found 40 per cent of people wanted to leave the EU compared to the 38 per cent who wanted to stay.

Read the most recent articles written by William Louch - EU PNR could be great tool in fight against major crime