The end of Viktor Orbán’s 16-year rule will reverberate far beyond Hungary, and the shift is being watched particularly close in Brussels. Orbán’s crushing defeat follows years of playing the role of the European Union’s chief antagonist and spoiler — wielding his veto to block crucial funding to Ukraine and sanctions on Russia.
But no longer.
Sunday’s victor, Peter Magyar, the center-right leader of the Tisza party, has pledged to root out Orbán’s system of cronyism and steer Hungary back toward the West, including by ending Budapest’s courtship of Moscow and mending ties with the European Union.
Armed with a two-thirds supermajority in Hungary’s Parliament, enough to amend the constitution and reshape key institutions, Magyar now has the institutional leverage to pursue sweeping changes.
1. €17 billion from the EU
One early credibility test for Magyar’s new government will be to unlock frozen EU funds — a core campaign pledge.
The €17 billion withheld over rule-of-law concerns are crucial to promised domestic investments such as healthcare — giving the EU strong leverage to demand reforms to Orbán’s system of state capture and patronage.
The timeline is tight. To unlock €10 billion in frozen pandemic recovery funding, Hungary must submit its Recovery and Resilience Plan by the end of August, while a further €6.3 billion in cohesion funds remains locked over corruption risks and limited judicial oversight.
But Budapest isn’t starting from scratch. A 2025 assessment by Amnesty International and Transparency International found that most EU conditions have already been fully or partly met.
Another €17 billion in low-interest defense loans is also pending approval from the European Commission. To date, Hungary is the only member state that has not yet received the green light.
2. Ukraine funds and sanctions on Russia
Magyar has already said he intends to drop Hungary’s opposition to both EU funding for Ukraine and sanctions on Russia.
Last December, EU leaders agreed on a €90-billion loan for war-torn Ukraine — a fallback after several countries, notably Belgium, resisted using frozen Russian assets for fear of retaliation. But just a month ago, with his election campaign faltering, Orbán again wielded his veto to block the package.
Zsuzsanna Végh, a political analyst at the German Marshall Fund, said she expects Hungary to soon show a “more cooperative attitude,” both when it comes to bilateral relationships with Ukraine, and toward actions from the EU.
Regardless of Magyar’s next steps, Orbán's departure is already prompting reflection in Brussels.
"Moving to qualified majority voting in foreign policy is an important way to avoid systemic blockages," European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told reporters on Monday. “We should use the momentum now really to move forward on that topic.”
3. Accession for Ukraine and Moldova
Continuity is likely to persist in some areas. As Orbán blocked the EU’s efforts to admit Ukraine and Moldova, he also reshaped national opinion, leaving a majority of Hungarians opposed to Ukraine’s accession.
As such, Magyar’s incoming government, while less concerned about pleasing Russia, could nonetheless prove similarly cautious about backing enlargement if domestic backlash risks weakening the Tisza coalition. On Monday, the day after his election win, Magyar said he “would not support Ukraine's fast-track entry to the European Union” and that he would instead put the question to a referendum.
4. From Forint to Euro
A potential Hungarian entry into the eurozone was another of Magyar’s campaign talking points, which would replace the Hungarian forint.
For now, the timeline is uncertain. Speaking on Monday, Magyar told reporters he was still not ready to commit to a specific date.
He admitted in Budapest that Hungary’s adoption the euro is in the country’s interest, but that his government must first assess the state of the country’s economy. Growth has been sluggish in recent years, though GDP is expected to increase around 2% by 2026 and 2027.
Fiscal constraints also loom large. Hungary remains under the EU excessive deficit procedure, which requires member states to keep their public deficit below 3% of GDP. Failure to comply could lead to the suspension of certain EU funds.
5. Kicking Russian energy?
Another stubborn source of friction between Viktor Orbán and the EU has been Hungary’s refusal to phase out Russian oil and gas — a key political priority since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
More than four years into the war, Hungary remains an outlier: Russia still supplies about 93% of its oil imports, according to the Center for the Study of Democracy.
In February, Budapest accused Kyiv of deliberately delaying repairs to a pipeline supplying fuel to Hungary and Slovakia. Both countries secured exemptions from the EU’s embargo on Russian pipeline oil due to their landlocked status.
Yet statements from Magyar’s first post-election press conference suggest change will be limited. He said the country would continue buying Russian energy and “prioritize the cheapest available oil,” despite pledging during the campaign to phase out such imports by 2035.
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