German support key to Britain's success in delivering EU reform

David Cameron is in a strong position to achieve sweeping EU reform. He mustn't underplay his hand, argues Open Europe's Pawel Swidlicki.

By Pawel Swidlicki

22 May 2015

Following his unexpected electoral triumph, David Cameron has a solid democratic mandate to push ahead with his EU renegotiation. Combined with the continuing strength of the British economy, this puts him in a very strong position among EU leaders, arguably second only to German chancellor Angela Merkel.

In order to capitalise on this, party strategists are now considering wrapping up the renegotiation speedily in order to bring the referendum forward to 2016. 

There are several upsides to moving ahead quickly; on the domestic front, Cameron's position within his party is stronger than it has been for a considerable period of time while the opposition parties are in disarray, and at this stage it is hard to see a slick and coherent 'out' campaign taking shape in time for the referendum. 


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Likewise on the European front, bringing the renegotiation and referendum forward would avoid a clash with the French presidential and German parliamentary elections, both scheduled for 2017.

However, we would argue that a hasty renegotiation campaign would be inadvisable as it would not make the most of a unique opportunity to secure the ambitious and far-reaching reform needed to address the EU's many flaws ranging from its lack of economic competitiveness to its thin democratic legitimacy.

A superficial renegotiation (as in 1975) resulting in a clutch of minor reforms may be enough to convince 51 per cent of voters to back continued membership, but it will not settle the question in the longer term, meaning that Brexit will remain firmly on the political agenda.

Therefore, Cameron should pursue an ambitious and far-reaching reform agenda while staying clear of demands that could never be accepted. 

Key priorities should include pro-competitiveness reforms such as expanding the EU's single market for services - a huge source of untapped growth for UK businesses, reforming the wasteful and inefficient EU budget, securing safeguards to protect non-euro member states from deeper eurozone integration, as well as reforms aimed at boosting the EU's democratic accountability - for example by increasing the influence of national parliaments over EU law-making. 

In addition, changes to rules around the free movement of workers - specifically to ensure that newly arrived migrants are not able to claim benefits before making an appropriate contribution to the welfare system - will be a crucial element of the package. Many commentators have long argued that
Cameron will not be able to secure sweeping EU reform but there are grounds to be optimistic; the ongoing eurozone crisis and the widespread political disenchantment - as manifested by the results of the European elections where turnout fell to an all-time low amid a surge in support for a host of populist, anti-establishment parties - have demonstrated that far from being a peculiar British obsession, the need for reform is now widely accepted, indeed it is explicitly reflected in the composition and mandate of the new European commission.

Nonetheless there is still a long way to go. Although many other EU states back various elements of the UK's broad reform agenda, the challenge will be to put together coalitions on issues ranging from re-writing the rules around EU migrants' access to national social security systems to striking ambitious free trade deals with the US and emerging global economies.

As ever, on most of the issues Germany will be the crucial swing state so it will be vital to keep Merkel onside. The more that Cameron can focus the renegotiation onto improving the functioning of the EU as a whole, the higher the chances of successful renegotiation, and therefore of convincing the British public to back continued membership when the referendum finally arrives.