Von der Leyen's Eastern tour signals power shift in EU security

The Commission president's whirlwind visit to Europe's eastern flank signals a pivot as once peripheral states become central to the EU's Russian defence strategy.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen deliver a statement to the media during their visit to the Polish-Belarus border, in Krynki, Poland, on Sunday. (Associated Press)

By Eloise Hardy

Eloise is a reporter at The Parliament Magazine.

02 Sep 2025

Ursula von der Leyen's plane had to navigate the old-school way.

As the European Commission president flew to Bulgaria on Sunday as part of a quest to reassure EU countries bordering Russia and Belarus, her aircraft was hit by suspected Russian GPS jamming, forcing the pilots to resort to paper maps for the landing at Plovdiv airport, the Financial Times reported.

The Kremlin has denied involvement, but in Brussels, the message was clear. The suspected attack will “only reinforce the Commission’s mission in the Eastern states,” a spokesperson for the EU executive told reporters on Monday.

The European Commission president’s seven-country blitz — spanning the Baltics, Finland, Poland, Bulgaria and Romania — isn't only a gesture of solidarity, but a strategic pivot to Europe's east. The region was long viewed as the EU's periphery but now finds itself on the frontline of the long and grinding confrontation with Russia since it launched its unprovoked war in Ukraine in early 2022.

Frontline Europe

Many of these countries were once part of or aligned with the Soviet Union. Now, they're among the EU's most vocal critics of Moscow, as well as the bloc’s most vulnerable — absorbing everything from Russian cyberattacks to disinformation campaigns and the weaponisation of migration.

“The centre of gravity in the EU and NATO has shifted,” Nicholas Williams, a former high-ranking NATO official, told The Parliament. “They're now realising that they [Eastern states] are players and that they need to take into account the anxieties, concerns, interests of these Eastern and Central-Eastern Europeans.”

Since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, many countries in the Balkans and the Baltics have boosted military spending, modernised infrastructure and increased cooperation with NATO. Warsaw in particular has emerged as a regional military heavyweight.

“The Central and Eastern Europeans are essential in the struggle to deter against Russia and support Ukraine,” Williams added. “They have shown themselves staunch in the defence of their security and internal interests, including their anti-immigration stance. Poland sets the tone and direction of these countries.”

At each stop, Von der Leyen reiterated Brussels’ commitment to tripling investment in migration management and border protection, with member states bordering Russia and Belarus receiving additional funding. She also touted the Commission’s Security Action for Europe (SAFE) tool, which allows for joint defence procurement borrowing. Bulgaria alone is reportedly seeking a loan of roughly €3 billion through the fund.

“It seems that the Europeans want to take more responsibility when it comes to defence and they want to do it through the EU,” Andi Hoxhaj, an associate fellow at defence and security think tank RUSI, told The Parliament.

Brussels moves East

Eastern flank states have grown more vocal about the mounting pressure. On Friday, interior ministers submitted a letter to Commission Vice-President Henna Virkkunen and Magnus Brunner, the commissioner for home affairs and migration, calling for additional funding to bolster surveillance and counter-drone technologies on their borders.

Behind the request isn't only a recognition of the region's vulnerability, but its geostrategic importance. Choke points like the Suwałki corridor — a narrow strip connecting the Baltic states to the rest of NATO — is considered the Western alliance's soft underbelly, as Russia could cut off Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia from their allies. The strip also provides a vital logistical and energy corridor.

While the risk of an imminent Russian invasion of Eastern Europe remains low, some EU powers have warned that Russia could regain the capacity to challenge NATO within the next three to five years.

Russia “will test capacities, possible threats to the EU, starting from missile drone attacks, continuing with electronic warfare and jamming,” Oleksiy Goncharenko, a member of the Ukrainian parliament, told The Parliament. “Military intelligence and security bodies of EU countries, together with American partners are very closely following what will happen there. I’m not awaiting an immediate threat from this, but all of this is a part of escalation on the eastern flank of the EU.”

These concerns formed a backdrop for Von der Leyen’s eastern tour, which saw her visit a drone and weapons factory in Riga, Latvia. In Sopot, Bulgaria, she visited a state-owned arms manufacturer — a move that drew nationalist protests. In Poland, she stood alongside Prime Minister Donald Tusk at the Belarus border while uniformed Belarusian soldiers looked on from across the fence.

“I want to emphasise again that Europe's borders are a shared responsibility,” Von der Leyen told reporters.

Russian, Belarus war games

Later this month, Russia and Belarus are set to begin their joint “Zapad-2025” military exercises — large-scale drills simulating combat with Western forces. A previous iteration, Zapad-2021, was seen by Ukraine as a rehearsal for the Russian invasion that followed. Some scenarios in the 2021 exercise even featured imaginary “Western states” as aggressors.

As a result, the EU is “becoming more and more militarised,” Hoxhaj said.

The symbolism of the drills extends beyond Moscow. Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko, whose grip on power has only tightened since contested elections in 2020, has relied on Moscow to push back against widespread protests and Western sanctions. In the years since, his regime has engaged in increasingly provocative tactics, including the alleged weaponisation of migration to destabilise the EU. 

Lukashenko “wants to demonstrate both solidarity to Putin and create unease among his neighbours,” said Williams. Ukraine, which shares more than 1,000 kilometres of border with Belarus, has repeatedly raised the alarm over Russian-Belarusian military cooperation.

"The cooperation between the regimes in Moscow and Minsk poses an immediate threat not only to Ukraine, but also to Poland, the Baltic states and all of Europe," Ukraine's foreign ministry said in a statement on its website. “And also hinders peaceful efforts of the United States President Donald Trump to end the war."

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