For 51 years, Cyprus has remained Europe's unfinished business. Since 1974, the island has been divided between the Republic of Cyprus and the Turkish Cypriot northern part of the island, a state recognised only by Ankara.
The last reunification negotiations collapsed in 2017. But change may be in the air. In October, pro-settlement Turkish Cypriot leader Tufan Erhürman secured a landslide victory against a Turkey-backed hardliner in northern Cyprus. In January, the Republic of Cyprus assumed the presidency of the Council of the European Union.
Reunification is not on the EU's agenda, but it should be. How do you ignore a United Nations buffer zone lined with barbed wire just a few kilometres from the presidential palace in Nicosia? As the Republic of Cyprus holds the presidency of the Council, the UN is also testing whether the two leaders are ready to restart talks.
President Nikos Christodoulides has laid out his vision for Cyprus' presidency, which includes a focus on migration and water security. The Republic of Cyprus faces surging irregular migration and worsening climate impacts: rising temperatures, droughts and fires — and so do Turkish Cypriots.
These shared crises should spark dialogue. Yet the division prevents such co-operation.
While thousands of Cypriots cross the buffer zone to shop or visit friends, most remain in separate worlds — physically, politically, emotionally. And the gap is widening as the secular north grows more conservative and religious under Turkey's influence.
Some Cypriot political commentators I spoke to recently believe that, considering Cyprus' limited government capacity, reunification talks should not start until July, after the presidency ends. After all, more than five decades have passed, so why rush? But time is the enemy. Waiting will derail momentum, meaning that negotiations — just like before — could take years.
Given the presence of a moderate Turkish Cypriot leader who appears willing to find a settlement and speak out against Ankara's stance, the six-month mandate of Cyprus' presidency may represent a crucial window of time to achieve substantial steps forward in negotiations.
This article is part of The Parliament's Guide to the Cyprus Presidency of the Council of the EU.
Bringing Europe into the talks
During the latest round of negotiations, from 2015 to 2017, the EU was on the sidelines of talks.
Given Cyprus' presidency, the EU needs to capitalise on the opportunity and push for progress. It is the only political actor with the capacity and knowledge to make northern Cyprus ready for reunification, particularly in its economy. This is the moment for the EU to demonstrate that it can help resolve long-standing conflicts within its borders.
A reunified Cyprus is in the EU's best interests. It would strengthen Greece-Turkey and EU-Turkey relations, unlock trade and energy opportunities and provide stability in a volatile region.
Today's geopolitical landscape is far more volatile than it was in 2017.
Cyprus' three guarantor powers — the United Kingdom, Greece and Turkey — are each constrained in new ways: post-Brexit Britain carries less global weight, while Athens and Ankara remain locked in tension. Russia's war in Ukraine has upended Europe's security order, and Washington's growing scepticism towards Europe only adds to the uncertainty.
A fragile start
In December, UN Special Envoy on Cyprus María Ángela Holguín Cuéllar brought both leaders together for a rare visit to the forensics lab in the UN buffer zone, which is part of the joint work on missing persons. It was a small but hopeful step. Disappointingly, in their first tête-à-tête, the two Cypriot leaders missed the opportunity to present a bold vision for a unified Cyprus.
The subsequent meeting lacked ambition, focusing only on long-standing issues that have remained unresolved for a decade, such as increased staffing at crossing points and the export of halloumi cheese from northern Cyprus to the EU.
If talks resume, they will be Cypriot-led and UN-facilitated, with Cyprus' guarantor powers at the table regarding key topics such as security.
The blueprint remains a federal Cyprus with Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot zones, and the whole island as an EU member state. But will negotiators pick up where they left off in 2017 — or start over? Core disputes persist: the role of the guarantor powers, security, troop presence, political equality, governance, property rights, territorial adjustment, EU relations and the economy.
The window for reunification is narrowing. Nearly two-thirds of Cypriots were born after 1974. They have never known a united island. If leaders do not act now, the question will not be how to reunify — but whether reunification will even matter at all.
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