Cassandra, in ancient Greek mythology, was fated to utter true prophecies but never be believed. She foresaw the fall of Troy and a way to avoid it, but her warnings fell on deaf ears.
Many modern-day Europeans have felt a lot like Cassandra must have, as an escalating permacrisis over the past two decades was met with a collective shrug. Now, as Europeans finally realise the magnitude of our challenges, most of us have still not come to terms with the decisive action that will be needed to avoid our own demise.
Even under the best circumstances, we will struggle to maintain the status quo. We are facing a world of painful sacrifices and trade-offs, where future generations are likely to be worse off than current ones. Ukraine might have to acquiesce partly to Russian aggression, despite our best efforts.
But we can still act to prevent the worst.
President Donald Trump’s realignment of the United States means that Europe’s post-war architecture must be completely redesigned to ensure our continued democracy, security and prosperity. But our response is lagging reality, and countries are still clinging to narrow policy taboos such as common borrowing, limited EU-level funding, fast accession, and national industrial policy and defence and security sectors.
These taboos need to go, and the EU has to fundamentally rethink its operating system to ensure that the enemies within can't block progress or venture into policy areas that were previously not part of the European integration process. The recognition that we are in a fight for survival, where "whatever-it-takes" should be our guiding motto, has still not taken hold.
A hostile US
The fundamental shift in US policy under Trump’s second term has finally hammered home the message that we are at a point of no return, where the future is inherently riskier and more contested. Trump’s actions — attacking, denigrating and destabilising opponents and the global order — have focused minds.
By threatening allies, starting trade wars, fuelling disinformation and supporting illiberal forces, Trump has begun his term as he means to go on: dismantling global cooperation, multilateralism, liberal democracy and the international rules-based order through a might-is-right approach.
The European Union and its liberal democracies have been a special focus, singled out by the US president as an enemy. This underpins his betrayal of Ukraine’s fight for freedom and the threatened withdrawal of American security. His ostensible alignment with Russia, for instance, rekindling diplomatic ties and calling off cyber action, deepens concerns.
Few in Europe still believe that there is room for meaningful negotiation and compromise, or that one can just wait out this administration. Hope springs eternal, only to be quashed by the next salvo of Trumpian announcements, much worse than anything under his first administration.
This is entirely intentional. The creation of chaos is policy, with the belief that the strongest will come out on top; liberal democracy is seen as weak and ripe for demolition.
There is now, at least, a clear appreciation in Europe and beyond that liberal democracy is on the back foot and that the coming period will be the most challenging in living memory. Hard-won freedoms are on the line, and significant new policy initiatives are taking shape to increase defence spending and build up Europe’s capacities. Where not everyone is on board, coalitions of the willing are the order of the day.
Yet Europe’s position could still deteriorate, and fast. We have begun drifting down a slippery slope that could lead us back towards much darker parts of our history. We need to collectively realise that unless we act decisively now, things could get much worse.
The worst-case scenario is much bleaker: Ukraine being wiped off the map, a Russian invasion of NATO territory, widespread nuclear proliferation as countries scramble for greater protection, and further war in Europe and beyond. This is a plausible scenario if Europe doesn’t shore up its defences.
Failure to bolster our liberal democracy could likewise lead to the rise of dictatorships, the fragmentation and polarisation of Europe with the re-emergence of territorial and border conflicts, and the demise of Europe’s economic and social model. While sounding apocalyptic, these outcomes are well within the realm of the possible.
Europe’s agency
Free Europe still has the agency, power and resources to make and enact decisions if it reclaims common ground. It can defend its liberal democracy, cooperating with the many countries around the world that are also threatened. It needs to start by fully addressing the security threat from Russia, accelerating support for Ukraine and building our own defence capabilities.
We must guard against the progress illusion: making positive but too-small incremental steps in a world of exponential challenges. All aspects of our way of life are on the line, and next generations will grow up in a worst-case world unless we take decisive and painful action now.
The seriousness of this threat needs to be conveyed to citizens. Liberal forces must work together, guided by our political leadership. We need to be ambitious, brave and innovative, going beyond what we thought was possible only a few months ago. We must break with the taboos of a previous era.
It is not too late: liberal democracy can avoid the worst case if we face the brutal truth together.
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