Russia’s war against Ukraine has reshaped more than the security architecture of Europe: It has also shaken the foundations of the continent’s energy system. In energy and climate matters as well as security, Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) has moved from the EU’s periphery to the epicentre of its policy debates.
The region has long balanced complex geopolitical realities, industrial vulnerabilities, and energy dependencies. Historically tethered to Russian fossil fuels, CEE countries were among the hardest hit by the energy shock triggered in 2022.
But that shock triggered a response, with CEE countries pursuing an energy transition as a catalyst for sovereignty and modernisation. The question now is whether they stay the course or risk sliding back into dependency, this time not only on hydrocarbons, but also on foreign technology and supply chains.
The region’s role within the EU, its geopolitical relevance, and its long-term economic competitiveness are all at stake.
Russian aggression exposed the geopolitical cost of fossil fuel dependency and accelerated the urgency of diversification of supply sources and energy systems. However, the transition toward clean energy isn’t a linear path. As Russia’s grip on the CEE region weakened, new risks emerged: over-reliance on Chinese clean technology supply chains, fragmented policy signals between Brussels and Washington, and the risk of industrial decline due to high energy prices.
CEE countries face unique challenges. Their energy systems are often less interconnected, infrastructure is ageing, and national budgets are strained by parallel demands for defence and social stability. Yet these countries have also demonstrated agility by rapidly reducing gas demand, scaling up renewables, and reigniting conversations around nuclear and geothermal development.
To convert this moment into momentum, CEE needs a strategic vision anchored in sovereignty, resilience, and industrial transformation.
The energy transition is a geopolitical necessity
The energy transition in CEE is about security as well as climate. Decarbonisation must be embedded into the broader narrative of national interest. Clean energy infrastructure should be framed as the 21st century’s defence infrastructure: ensuring energy independence, price stability, and competitiveness.
A successful transition in CEE will depend on several interlocking priorities.
Securing short-term energy needs without derailing long-term goals is vital for the region. The clean energy transition must begin by acknowledging immediate energy security realities. As natural gas remains essential in the short term, particularly for heating and balancing variable renewables, CEE countries should prioritise using domestic resources like Romania’s offshore reserves, while coordinating targeted LNG imports from reliable partners.
Short-term fixes must not lock the region into long-term fossil fuel dependency: New contracts should be limited in scope and duration, aligned with the EU's climate targets, and complemented by firm decarbonisation plans.
Countries must resist the temptation of betting on a single solution. Proven low-carbon technologies like solar, wind, hydro, and nuclear must be complemented by future-proof options such as geothermal, which can provide clean firm power, and carbon capture and storage, which is particularly relevant for hard-to-abate industries. Flexibility is key, particularly in a region with diverse geography and industrial baselines.
At the same time, accelerating grid interconnection across CEE and with future EU members in Ukraine, Moldova, and the Western Balkans will be critical for balancing supply and demand, reducing prices, and boosting resilience.
The EU’s borders are shifting and as these candidate countries move closer to accession, the energy transition must be woven into the enlargement process. Funds must be channelled not only into compliance but also into infrastructure, grid upgrades, and clean industry, turning potential liabilities into assets. Success for the EU’s energy union hinges on the full integration of its eastern front.
With China dominating global clean energy supply chains, CEE has a historic opportunity to position itself as Europe’s manufacturing hub. Skilled labour, geographic proximity to key markets, and the EU’s industrial strategy create favourable conditions. The region must seize this by attracting investment, reshoring value chains, and aligning with the EU’s Clean Industrial Deal.
Perhaps most crucially, governments must communicate the energy transition as a national development strategy, not an externally imposed burden. Without public buy-in, even the best policies risk stalling.
Energy innovation in Central and Eastern Europe
The geopolitical landscape is growing more volatile but the CEE region must define its strategic agency as a driver of convergence between clean energy, economic renewal, and geopolitical alignment.
Whether through advanced nuclear collaboration with the US or clean energy corridor development with the EU and Ukraine, the region can serve as both an anchor and a bridge.
The EU’s success in reaching its 2030 and 2040 climate goals will depend not only on targets set in Brussels, but on action taken in Bucharest, Warsaw, Bratislava and Sofia.
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