NATO's Mark Rutte wasn’t quite right when he urged EU member states to “fund defence or prepare to learn Russian.” Some of our best defenders already speak the language.
The EU is home to thousands of russophones, but they are often politically disengaged for reasons that go beyond Russia's war against Ukraine. They are vulnerable to increased appeals from Eurosceptic populists and could swing elections if not engaged by the political centre. Alongside rallying behind Ukraine and much-needed resistance to disinformation in cyberspace, the EU must fight for the hearts and minds of russophones within its borders.
When the Soviet Union collapsed, more than 25 million ethnic Russians remained outside the new Russian Federation, along with thousands of other Russian speakers from Belarusian and Ukrainian backgrounds. As much as 38% of Latvia’s population is primarily Russian speaking, as is 28% of Estonia’s.
There are likewise perhaps four million Germans of Russian-speaking background, most of whose families arrived from former Soviet territory after 1991. The number of new EU russophones increases daily, not least as Estonia and Latvia rectify thousands of citizenship arrangements left ambiguous after the 1990s.
Events in Moldova, an EU candidate country, highlight the importance of these communities. Last October’s hard-won referendum on EU membership was clinched for "Yes" by less than one percentage point. Russophone voters, including many ethnic Ukrainians, overwhelmingly opposed it.
Russian speakers frozen out across Europe
Similar dynamics could prove decisive within the EU. Populist, Eurosceptic parties – often despite mixed approaches towards Russian-speaking Ukrainian refugees – are increasingly appealing to existing russophone minorities, whose electoral loyalties are fluctuating.
In Germany, Russian speakers are moving from the Christian Democratic Union to the Alternative for Germany. In Estonia, they are deserting the collapsing Centre Party for the nativist Conservative People’s Party. In Latvia, the Harmony Party’s disintegration has bolstered the politically ruthless For Stability alliance.
The challenge is formidable. Successive Tsarist and Soviet privileging of Russians and their language left psychological scars across Europe, to the extent that russophone advocacy today is readily conflated with colonisation. This is worsened by Kremlin claims of a "Russian world" and of discrimination against Russian speakers in Europe – a claim used as a pretext for its invasion of Ukraine.
Baltic heritage must be preserved and vulnerabilities to malign influence addressed. Estonia and Latvia are phasing out Russian as the primary language of school instruction, and the former is restricting non-citizens from local elections. Soviet-era monuments and symbols are under review, and efforts to block disinformation-laden media channels are working.
However, with these sticks must come carrots. It is vital not to see all russophones as agents of the Kremlin. Russophone Estonians, Germans and Latvians, especially among the young, feel profoundly attached to their respective countries. Claims of "persecution" towards russophones, when tested in court, have been found to be false.
United in diversity?
The EU is built on the power of diversity and could do more to soothe trepidation among these communities, which leaves them politically vulnerable. Public suspicion, false perceptions of deportation risk or worries that even pro-Ukrainian russophone voices could be penalised by language legislation are all areas of potential action.
Minority disenchantment relates closely to several factors that drive populism worldwide, including deindustrialisation. The russophone "proletarian diaspora" was largely in Soviet factories whose chimneys are now silent.
Accordingly, russophones in Estonia and Latvia (and among the predominantly blue-collar migrants to Germany) have relatively higher rates of unemployment and poor mental and physical health. In the Baltics, they often live in segregated communities and were historically disengaged from politics in Germany.
Economic revitalisation will be vital to helping them and has hampered populism’s march elsewhere. Huge EU commitments to russophone regions and local efforts to repurpose derelict areas show promise, as will increased education spending.
Yet patterns of voting in Brexit remind us that EU money alone doesn’t foster pro-European sentiment if deindustrialised localities still perceive abandonment. Project visibility, whose importance was highlighted by EU work with Moldova’s russophones, will be crucial going forward.
Supporting russophones
More than this, as disinformation channels are blocked, it is also vital to have a positive communication strategy. Without high-quality alternatives, russophones could move online for news as they already have in Moldova. Alternatives must cater to audience preferences for different entertainment styles; distinct tastes have sustained Russian media consumption in Latvia, even among Latvian speakers.
The EU, which has supported exiled Russian journalists, could foster homegrown Russian-language journalism by complementing work by the Latvian and Estonian governments, German outlets, the Nordics, and NGOs like Reporters Without Borders. As it considers preserving media threatened by American budget cuts, the EU’s proven creativity towards russophone social media and media literacy will be vital in bringing communities together.
In our uncertain times, russophones will shape the EU’s future, not least in Moldova’s uncertain forthcoming elections and Armenia’s future membership referendum. The EU must hold its nerve and deploy imagination towards such citizens within and beyond its borders.
To paraphrase the British pro-EU titan, Michael Heseltine: They are European, they are Russian speaking, they live here, they vote here. To fight for its values and secure its future, Europe must be their champion.
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