Uncertainty in global trade has been steadily rising since Donald Trump's victory in the US elections last November. If there had been room for doubt in previous years, it is now clear that world trade will be detrimentally affected.
The WTO sounded the alarm as early as September regarding the risks posed by the rise of populism and the protectionist wave that lies ahead. Step by step, these suspicions are being confirmed.
Europe is experiencing a period of uncertainty regarding its trade agenda, and the legitimacy of the European Commission itself in negotiating agreements is being called into question, despite operating under member states' terms, as was recently the case with CETA and TTIP.
RELATED CONTENT
A clear example of this dynamic is France, where pressure from the agricultural sector has resulted in deep misgivings towards trade agreements, which are used as an argument by populists and nationalists wielding the banner of protectionism.
There is room for improvement in negotiations with the Mercosur agreement. The good thing about Mercosur is its member states' extremely positive attitude towards agreements, demonstrated by their much more ambitious offer than the one they made in 2004.
Global and regional perspectives make reaching an agreement all the more urgent. While the political situation in Brazil makes negotiation difficult, Argentina, under President Mauricio Macri, is pushing for a broad trade-friendly economic agenda.
The potential this change in attitude in Argentina engenders works greatly in Spain's favour and in the favour of Spanish companies. There are a large number of planned infrastructure projects Spanish companies could be involved in over the next few years and, if the agreement is signed in time, equal treatment would be guaranteed in the event of a public invitation to tender.
However, there are misgivings in Europe with regard to Argentinean agriculture and cattle farming, and misgivings in Argentina with regard to European industry. The two parties will need to work hard to assuage these fears and move towards a position where they can reach an agreement that is mutually beneficial for all.
We can mitigate the effects of this global uncertainty from the EU. Critical internal voices need to abate when it comes to free-trade agreements. The EU and member states must be able to seamlessly defend and support their trade strategies, thereby complying with the terms of negotiation set by the Council. We must not allow ourselves to be defeated by populists.
There, we must give greater visibility to the positive effects of free-trade agreements, as is the case with South Korea. Between 2010 and 2015, exports from the EU increased by around 55 per cent, from €30.6bn to €47.3bn. The export of deregulated goods increased by around 57 per cent and partially deregulated goods, by around 70 per cent.
European companies have saved around €2.8bn in tariffs. The agreement has also been a success for South Korea, with an increase of around 35 per cent and 64 per cent respectively.
Trade is the key to Spain's economic recovery. One of the reasons for the growth Spain has Experienced over the last few years is the increase in foreign trade. Trade is the engine of economics and the prosperity of countries.
As the Spanish saying goes, "You can't hold back the tide" [No se pueden poner puertas al campo].