Agreement reached on terms for Scottish referendum

Holyrood and Westminster have agreed terms for the 2014 Scottish independence referendum. Gerald Callaghan reports

By Gerald Callaghan

25 Oct 2012

In the autumn of 2014, the people of Scotland will be asked if they wish to remain part of the UK or stand alone as an independent state.

The Scottish referendum will mark the seven-hundred year anniversary of the iconic battle of Bannockburn, where the Scots, led by Robert the Bruce, defeated the English in 1314 to secure their independence.

Early last week, Scotland's first minister Alex Salmond and UK prime minister David Cameron met at St Andrew's house in Edinburgh to sign an agreement that set out the terms of the Scottish independence referendum.

The signing of the 'Edinburgh agreement' now leaves nearly two years of debate between the 'Better together' and 'Yes Scotland' campaigns. For the UK, it is a ground-breaking referendum, as 16 and 17 year olds will be allowed to enter voting booths for the first time.

"The agreement will see Scotland take an important step toward independence, and the means to create a fairer and more prosperous Scotland. I look forward to working positively for a 'yes' vote in 2014" - Scotland's First Minister Alex Salmond

The referendum will be overseen by the UK's electoral commission, and there will be one single question on Scotland's future, in or out of the UK?

Previously, there was a debate over the possibility of a second question on the ballot paper, one for 'devo-max', which would see more powers transferred to the Scottish government, but stopping short of full autonomy.

Support was greatest for this option, with a survey by the BBC's Politics Show indicating that 33 per cent of Scottish voters backed 'devo-max', while support for independence was indicated by 28 per cent of respondents and 29 per cent backing no further constitutional change.

However, despite the preference of the Scottish electorate for 'devo-max', the UK and Scottish governments believe that a single question will deliver clarity about the degree of autonomy most Scots want. Therefore, the other option was left off the ballot paper.

In a statement following the decision, Cameron said, "This marks the beginning of an important chapter in Scotland's story and allows the real debate to begin. It paves the way so that the biggest question of all can be settled: a separate Scotland or a United Kingdom?"

Speaking after the terms were agreed, the Scottish first minister said, "The agreement will see Scotland take an important step toward independence, and the means to create a fairer and more prosperous Scotland. I look forward to working positively for a 'yes' vote in 2014."

Elsewhere, speaking from his Brussels office, Scottish MEP Alyn Smith told the Parliament Magazine that he was "delighted" with the decision on a single question, adding "That was always the Scottish National Party's (SNP) preference."

"Our proposition was always clear; we are pro-independence, not pro 'devo-max'. We got the result we wanted. We had to create a space for the opposition campaign, but they have not taken up this opportunity, and many people who were advocating more power will now be saying yes to independence," added the SNP member.

"Our proposition was always clear; we are pro-independence, not pro 'devo-max'. We got the result we wanted. We had to create a space for the opposition campaign, but they have not taken up this opportunity" - Alyn Smith MEP

At a time when the EU faces increasing hostility from the UK government, Scottish government support for the EU remains high. However, it is unclear what the process for Scottish membership of the EU would be.

Would it be considered a new member state and have to reapply for membership? Or would it inherit the negotiated treaties already adopted by the UK?

Several written questions have been submitted to the European commission with regards to EU membership post-independence. When asked by a number of Scottish MEPs if a newly independent Scotland would have to reapply for member state status, the commission refused to comment on "a hypothetical situation", despite both campaigns claiming to know the answer.

The 'Better together' campaign believes that Scotland would have to reapply for EU membership, and that this might not be granted as it would have to be agreed upon by all member states.

Just last week, Spanish foreign minister, José Manuel García-Margallo told the Spanish senate, "An independent Scotland would have to join the queue" for accession to the EU.

However, the SNP and 'Yes Scotland' campaign believe Scotland would remain part of the EU with the same benefits and 'opt-outs' that the UK currently enjoys. "Scotland is already part of the European Union, our citizens are EU citizens, and they want to keep us in", said Smith.

Academics believe that in reality, negotiations with Brussels would be based on the premise that the EU would be very keen to keep an independent Scotland in the union.

As the EU is an expansionist organisation that believes in pan-European integration, it may encounter problems if it begins to take an exclusionary stance to contain regions with their own hopes of nationhood, such as Catalunya.

In the UK at the moment, Cameron is facing pressure from backbenchers calling for more powers to be returned from Europe. Since taking office, the prime minister has been under growing pressure to hold a referendum on Britain's membership of the EU.

A YouGov poll shows that Scotland is the most supportive part of the UK in terms of EU membership. According to the poll, 50 per cent of Scots wanted to remain part of the EU, with this figure dropping to 45 per cent and 40 per cent, for Wales and England respectively.

It is impossible to say what Edinburgh's relationship will be with regards to EU membership in a post-independent Scotland. At the moment, arguments for and against independence are nothing more than mere assertions. The fact is that the Scottish people, as EU citizens, will exercise a democratic right in 2014 and the outcome of that referendum will be crucial for the future direction of Scotland and the UK.

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