Europe's NATO members have bowed to Donald Trump's demands to significantly increase defence spending. But will it be enough to cure the continent's military woes?
The deal struck last week in The Hague was as blunt as it was historic: five for five. In exchange for a renewed American commitment to NATO’s Article 5 security guarantee, European members agreed to spend 5% of their GDP on defence by 2035 — more than doubling the alliance’s previous target. It was, as one diplomat told The Parliament, “one big transatlantic bargain.”
But like much in Donald Trump’s second term as US president, the substance behind the rhetoric is murkier. For all the fanfare, the summit highlighted the fragility of the alliance as much as its resilience. Ukraine was once again left on the sidelines: a planned NATO-Ukraine Council failed to materialise, and the final communiqué quietly dropped reference to Russia as the aggressor in the ongoing war. Meanwhile, the 5% pledge, though pitched as a triumph of unity, also reflects the deep imbalance that continues to define the EU-US power dynamic.
From the patchwork of incompatible military systems across the bloc to Europe’s ongoing dependence on US-made equipment and strategic capabilities, the EU remains unprepared to defend itself without Washington — even as the US continues its pivot to the Pacific. The alliance may have rallied in The Hague, but the terms were unmistakably Trump’s.
The summit marked a culmination of nearly six months of a mercurial Trump presidency that has put the post-war transatlantic alliance under more strain than at any time in the past 80 years. It has also left the European Union in a perpetually defensive posture, scrambling to keep pace with Trump’s erratic signals on Ukraine and tariffs.
Still, after tip-toeing around Trump, showering him with flattery — “Daddy has to sometimes use strong language” — and giving the US president everything he wanted, EU leaders widely declared the summit a success. With that out of the way, they now face a potentially more existential and immediate threat: a colossal trade war with the US that could gut Europe’s already fragile economy.
Brussels now has less than a week to secure a trade deal with Washington, or face a crippling baseline 50% tariff rate on European exports to the United States.
But even if the EU succeeds in staving off such a high levy, there’s a growing sense that the world’s largest bilateral trade and investment relationship has been irreversibly weakened.
Tariffs in one form or another are likely here for good, one EU official told The Parliament. There’s not a realistic chance of returning to the status quo.”
— Christopher Alessi, Editor-in-Chief